01/10/2025
Written by: Ian Morley
Daily Currency Market Update – 9th June 2025
GBP/EUR
Summary: GBP/EUR continues to strengthen as traders await the UK employment report, due tomorrow. The European Central Bank’s (ECB) hawkish stance helped stabilise the Euro after last week’s rate cut, with President Christine Lagarde reiterating that restrictive policies will remain in place for as long as necessary. Meanwhile, concerns over US tariffs on the Eurozone remain a key pressure point for EUR, as Trump’s recent decision to double steel and aluminium import tariffs continues to weigh on sentiment.
Outlook: The UK’s employment report could be pivotal for GBP/EUR. If the labour market data exceeds expectations, Sterling could see additional upside. Meanwhile, ECB commentary will be closely monitored for signals on future rate moves.
GBP/USD
Summary: GBP/USD trades near 1.3570 as the US Dollar remains under pressure ahead of US-China trade negotiations in London. The Pound gained as investors positioned themselves for key UK economic data releases later this week, including employment figures and monthly GDP numbers. Meanwhile, US President Trump’s criticism of the Federal Reserve for failing to cut rates has added to market uncertainty.
Outlook: The market will be watching the UK’s employment and GDP data closely. Additionally, developments in US-China trade talks could introduce volatility to GBP/USD.
EUR/USD
Summary: EUR/USD remains stable above 1.1400 after shedding 0.4% on Friday. The Euro is supported by Lagarde’s commitment to restrictive monetary policy, despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding US-EU trade relations. Meanwhile, US Nonfarm Payrolls data showed better-than-expected job additions in May, but downward revisions to previous months tempered optimism.
Outlook: The Euro may continue to find support from ECB policy signals. However, the markets will monitor any updates from US-China trade talks that could shift sentiment.
USD/AUD
Summary: AUD/USD holds firm above 0.6500 following mixed economic data from China. While China’s trade surplus widened in May, consumer inflation weakened further, raising concerns about domestic demand. Despite this, risk appetite remains intact, supporting the Aussie.
Outlook: Global trade developments and Australian employment data later this week will be key factors for AUD/USD.
USD/CAD
Summary: USD/CAD drifts lower towards 1.3700 as markets focus on the US-China trade talks. Canada’s labour market figures were mixed, with a surprise job increase but an uptick in the unemployment rate to 7%, its highest level since the pandemic. Meanwhile, oil prices remain a secondary driver for CAD sentiment.
Outlook: The markets will assess US economic data releases and developments in trade discussions for cues on USD/CAD direction.
USD/CHF
Summary: USD/CHF edges lower to near 0.8200 as safe-haven flows into the Swiss Franc continue. Weak Swiss inflation data reinforced expectations that the Swiss National Bank may deliver a 25 basis point rate cut at its next meeting, yet broader risk sentiment remains a key driver for CHF.
Outlook: The markets will focus on US economic releases and SNB policy signals for further movement in USD/CHF.
Final Summary
Markets remain cautious ahead of key US-China trade negotiations, with investors positioning for UK employment and GDP data releases. The US Dollar struggles as traders weigh Trump’s tariff policies and the Fed’s interest rate stance. The Euro stabilises following Lagarde’s hawkish comments, while commodity-linked currencies like the Australian and Canadian Dollars react to global trade developments. The Swiss Franc sees continued safe-haven demand, though SNB rate cut expectations linger. Looking ahead, economic data and trade discussions will set the tone for market direction.