18/11/2025
Written by: Ian Morley
Daily Currency Market Update – 31st October 2025
GBP/EUR
Summary: GBP/EUR held firm near 1.1350 as the ECB left rates unchanged and maintained a cautious tone. The Euro was supported by resilient growth data and a stable inflation outlook, while the Pound remained under pressure amid weak UK productivity forecasts and rising expectations of BoE easing. Germany’s CPI slowed to 2.3% y/y in October, slightly above expectations.
Outlook: GBP/EUR may remain rangebound unless BoE commentary shifts. Eurozone inflation data and UK fiscal developments will guide direction.
GBP/USD
Summary: GBP/USD traded below 1.3150 after three consecutive daily declines, losing 1.3% on the week. The pair remains pressured by broad USD strength and UK economic concerns.
Outlook: GBP/USD may remain soft if Fed speakers reinforce a hawkish stance. UK budget expectations and US data will shape momentum.
EUR/USD
Summary: EUR/USD hovered near 1.1560, extending its weekly decline amid cautious sentiment and a stronger Dollar. The pair remains vulnerable ahead of Eurozone inflation data, with HICP expected to ease to 2.1% y/y.
Outlook: Euro may face further pressure if inflation undershoots. ECB tone and Fed commentary will influence direction.
AUD/USD
Summary: AUD/USD remained subdued around 0.6550, weighed by mixed Chinese PMI data and fading post-meeting optimism. China’s Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0, while Non-Manufacturing edged up to 50.1.
Outlook: AUD may struggle unless Chinese data improves. RBA rate expectations and global risk sentiment will guide direction.
USD/CAD
Summary: USD/CAD held near 1.3980, supported by reduced Fed rate cut expectations and a hawkish BoC tone. The Fed’s cautious stance and Powell’s remarks dampened December cut bets, while the BoC signalled a potential end to its easing cycle.
Outlook: CAD may gain if BoC maintains a hawkish bias. Oil prices and Fed commentary will be key drivers.
USD/CHF
Summary: USD/CHF climbed to 0.8026, a two-week high, as the Dollar strengthened broadly post-Fed. The SNB reiterated its expansive stance, with Tschudin noting interventions and negative rates remain possible if needed.
Outlook: USD/CHF may remain firm if Fed signals policy caution. SNB tone and global risk appetite will shape CHF direction.
Final Summary
The US Dollar held weekly gains after the Fed’s cautious tone dampened December cut expectations. The Euro steadied post-ECB, while Sterling remained pressured by UK fiscal concerns and BoE easing bets. Commodity currencies were mixed, with AUD weighed by Chinese data and CAD supported by BoC commentary. The Swiss Franc softened as SNB reaffirmed its expansive stance.