26/07/2024
Written by: Ian Morley
Summary:
Treasury yields fell yesterday due to a softer revision of Q1 figures in the US. GDP was adjusted down to 1.3% from the initial estimate of 1.6%, and the core PCE number indicated that inflation eased further to 3.6%. As a result, the USD lost much of its gains from Wednesday. The GBP also declined across the board, reflecting a drop in risk appetite as US equities fell.
Speeches:
Market Insight:
The end of the month could be volatile with the release of inflation figures from Europe and the US. Today’s European data is unlikely to affect the ECB’s decisions next week, with markets assigning a 98% probability of a rate cut. However, these figures could influence the ECB’s decisions in future meetings and shape the outcome of the ECB’s statement during next week’s monetary policy meeting. In the afternoon, attention will shift to the US and the core PCE number. A soft number could lead to further USD weakness ahead of next week’s US job numbers.