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Market Insight 30-09-2025

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  • Market Insight 30-09-2025

Daily Market Update: 30 September 2025

Key Currency Pair Movements

GBP/EUR

  • Summary: The GBP/EUR cross falls to near 1.1430.
  • Outlook: Pound Sterling (GBP) is under pressure from persistent UK fiscal worries. This is compounded by slightly dovish remarks from Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden, who indicated there is “scope for further removal of policy restraint”. Conversely, the Euro (EUR) is strengthening against the Pound.

GBP/USD

  • Summary: The pair stays relatively quiet in the European session and holds comfortably above 1.3400.
  • Outlook: The pair is advancing as the US Dollar trades cautiously amid fears of a US government shutdown. The Pound also received support from the UK’s Office for National Statistics, which revised the annualised Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the second quarter higher to 1.4% from 1.2%.

EUR/USD

  • Summary: The pair clings to small daily gains slightly below 1.1750 in the European morning.
  • Outlook: Germany’s Retail Sales for August declined by 0.2% month-on-month, significantly missing the market expectation for a 0.6% increase. Later in the session, investors will focus on a keynote speech by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde.

AUD/USD

  • Summary: The pair lost its traction after rising above 0.6600 earlier in the day and was last seen trading flat around 0.6575.
  • Outlook: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the policy rate unchanged at 3.6%, as widely anticipated. RBA Governor Michele Bullock stated that the bank will focus on quarterly inflation figures to guide future rate decisions and will remain attentive to the data and evolving outlook.

USD/CAD

  • Summary: The pair is showing a slight decline, with the exchange rate currently around 1.3910.
  • Outlook: The pair stays muted as the US government is nearing a funding freeze and possible shutdown, following warnings from President Trump about potential widespread federal job losses. Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar is somewhat supported after Statistics Canada revised July GDP growth to 0.2% and reported no change in August, easing concerns of a sharper economic slowdown.

USD/CHF

  • Summary: The USD/CHF pair trades cautiously around 0.7970.
  • Outlook: The pair’s outlook remains uncertain amid escalating risks to a partial US government shutdown. The overall US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to edge down and is trading near 97.85.

Final Summary

The US Dollar (USD) remains on the back foot as concerns over a potential US government shutdown intensify, with Vice President JD Vance signalling that the government is “headed to a shutdown” after Republicans and Democrats failed to reach a funding agreement before the Tuesday midnight deadline. A shutdown could cause a delay in key data releases, including the JOLTS Job Openings report and the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. Volatility is expected to increase due to position re-adjustments on the last trading day of the third quarter. In the UK, the Pound is under pressure following dovish remarks from a BoE official, despite a positive revision to second-quarter GDP figures. Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its policy rate steady.