Market Insight 30-04-2025

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  • Market Insight 30-04-2025

GBPEUR

Summary:
The pound has held its ground against the euro, trading around 1.1760 during Wednesday’s session. Sterling initially drew strength from improved UK retail sales last week, but momentum has stalled as attention shifts to today’s release of German and Eurozone GDP data. A modest improvement in German retail sales YoY has also supported the euro.

Outlook:
With traders now strongly expecting a BoE rate cut on 8th May, GBP may come under renewed pressure in the days ahead. Meanwhile, stronger-than-expected Eurozone data could lift the euro further, potentially capping any GBP/EUR upside.

EURUSD

Summary:
EUR/USD has ticked lower on Wednesday, moving away from the highs seen earlier in the week. The pair trades just under 1.1400, as some modest dollar strength and dovish commentary from ECB officials weigh on the euro.

Outlook:
Focus now turns to Eurozone GDP and CPI figures alongside key US data releases including the PCE price index and Q1 GDP. Stronger EU numbers could help the euro resume its climb, while weak US data may also limit dollar strength.

GBPUSD

Summary:
Sterling corrected modestly from Tuesday’s three-year high of 1.3445 and is now trading around 1.3400. The pullback comes ahead of key US economic data due later today and amid fresh bets on a BoE rate cut next month.

Outlook:
If US GDP and inflation figures disappoint, GBPUSD may push higher again. However, dovish BoE commentary and looming rate cut expectations could limit the pound’s upside.

USDAUD

Summary:
AUD/USD has recovered slightly after Tuesday’s decline, trading near 0.6400. The Australian dollar found some support from stronger-than-expected Q1 inflation data, while weak Chinese PMI numbers limited further gains.

Outlook:
Despite today’s rebound, the Australian dollar remains vulnerable to further losses if risk sentiment worsens or US data surprises to the upside. A May RBA rate cut remains widely expected.

USDCAD

Summary:
USD/CAD is holding firm around 1.3840, supported by renewed optimism around US-China trade relations and a broadly steady US dollar. The Canadian dollar remains subdued amid political uncertainty following a narrow election outcome.

Outlook:
The next move in USDCAD will be heavily influenced by today’s Canadian GDP figures and US data. A stronger USD or weaker oil prices could keep CAD on the defensive.

USDCHF

Summary:
The Swiss franc has strengthened modestly, with USD/CHF slipping to around 0.6410. Tariff-related uncertainty and safe-haven demand continue to support CHF despite a relatively stable USD.

Outlook:
If today’s US data underwhelms or trade tensions worsen, the Swiss franc may see further inflows. However, stronger-than-expected US GDP or inflation data could limit gains in USD/CHF.

Final Summary:


Markets remain on edge ahead of a wave of top-tier economic data releases. The pound is steady but may struggle to extend gains as BoE rate cut expectations rise. The euro has eased slightly but remains resilient, while the US dollar awaits fresh catalysts. Risk-sensitive currencies like AUD and CAD are recovering but remain vulnerable amid global uncertainty. Attention now turns to US GDP, inflation, and employment data for clearer direction.