30/09/2025
Written by: Ian Morley
Daily Currency Market Update – 29th August 2025
GBP/EUR
Summary: GBP/EUR slips to 1.1560 ahead of German CPI inflation. The pair moved slightly following German Retail Sales data, which showed a 1.5% m/m decline in July.
Outlook: Sterling may find support from persistent UK inflation, while Euro sentiment remains cautious ahead of preliminary CPI readings.
GBP/USD
Summary: GBP/USD trades below 1.3500 after three days of marginal gains. Cable remains in consolidation as markets await US PCE inflation data.
Outlook: GBP/USD may react to today’s inflation print, with upside potential if Fed rate cut expectations strengthen.
EUR/USD
Summary: EUR/USD trades around 1.1660, holding losses after disappointing German Retail Sales. The pair faces pressure from stronger US GDP data and cautious ECB commentary.
Outlook: Euro may remain subdued unless German CPI surprises to the upside. US inflation data will be pivotal.
USD/AUD
Summary: AUD/USD steadies after three days of gains, supported by robust Private Sector Credit growth (+0.7% m/m) and stronger inflation data.
Outlook: AUD may appreciate further if dovish Fed sentiment persists and Chinese trade outlook improves.
USD/CAD
Summary: USD/CAD hovers around 1.3750 ahead of US PCE and Canadian GDP data. The pair paused its three-day decline as crude oil prices firmed.
Outlook: CAD could strengthen if GDP surprises positively and oil prices remain supported.
USD/CHF
Summary: USD/CHF trades slightly higher near 0.8025, with the Dollar supported by firm GDP data and anticipation of PCE inflation. Swiss GDP rose 0.1% in Q2.
Outlook: USD/CHF may stay elevated if US inflation data reinforces Fed rate cut expectations.
Final Summary
Sterling softens against the Euro and Dollar ahead of key inflation data, while the Euro remains pressured by weak German retail figures. The US Dollar stabilises on upbeat GDP and cautious Fed commentary. Commodity-linked currencies like AUD and CAD show resilience, supported by domestic data and firmer oil prices. The Swiss Franc trades cautiously ahead of inflation signals and SNB policy outlook.