09/09/2024
Written by: Ian Morley
Summary:
Friday ended on a subdued note, despite core PCE figures in the US slightly exceeding expectations.
Speeches:
Market Insight:
This week, central banks are in the spotlight with key monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England. The market anticipates no rate change from the Fed. There’s a 70% probability of a rate hike from the BoJ, and a 50% probability of a rate cut from the BoE. The JPY appreciated last week in anticipation of a hike, so if the BoJ does not act, we expect the JPY to decline. The BoE’s decision appears finely balanced, with opinions divided on their next move. A rate cut could weaken the GBP, while no change might keep the GBP around current highs.
As it’s the first week of the month, US employment data will be closely watched, including JOLTs job openings, ADP payrolls, and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls. Expectations suggest a slight slowdown in job additions from 206,000 in June to 175,000 in July, a dip in wages, and an unemployment rate steady at 4.1%.
In Europe, we await advanced Q2 GDP figures, projected to show 0.50% growth, and CPI data, with the core number expected to drop to 2.8%.