30/11/2025
Written by: Ian Morley
Daily Currency Market Update – 28th November 2025
GBP/EUR
Summary: GBP/EUR held near a one‑month high as traders assessed ECB minutes and Eurozone sentiment data. The ECB reaffirmed its stance of keeping rates unchanged, describing policy as “in a good place.” UK fiscal headroom from Reeves’ Autumn Budget reassured investors, while BoE rate‑cut expectations for December remain firm.
Outlook: GBP/EUR may remain supported unless ECB signals fresh easing. BoE commentary and Eurozone inflation data will guide direction.
GBP/USD
Summary: GBP/USD traded around 1.3240, extending its winning streak to seven sessions. Sterling gained on fiscal discipline signals from Reeves’ budget, while the Dollar weakened as Fed cut bets surged to 87% for December. Traders also anticipate three additional cuts by 2026, reinforced by speculation that Kevin Hassett could succeed Powell as Fed Chair.
Outlook: GBP/USD may consolidate unless US data surprises. UK fiscal clarity and Fed succession speculation will shape momentum.
EUR/USD
Summary: EUR/USD eased to 1.1585 after failing to hold above 1.1600. The Euro remained supported by Fed easing expectations, though mixed German data (Retail Sales -0.3% m/m, Import Prices above forecast) capped gains. The pair is still on track for a 0.6% weekly advance.
Outlook: Euro may remain firm unless US yields rise. German inflation and ECB commentary will be pivotal.
AUD/USD
Summary: AUD/USD slipped to 0.6450 after six days of gains. Stronger‑than‑expected inflation and private credit growth (0.7% m/m in October) reinforced RBA caution, tempering easing expectations. The Dollar remained pressured by dovish Fed sentiment, supporting AUD resilience.
Outlook: AUD may regain ground if inflation momentum persists. RBA tone and US macro data will guide direction.
USD/CAD
Summary: USD/CAD traded near 1.4030, posting modest gains as oil prices softened. The Dollar held firm despite dovish Fed bets, while CAD awaited Q3 GDP data, forecast to expand 0.5% annualised after Q2’s contraction.
Outlook: CAD may strengthen if GDP surprises positively. Oil trends and US PMI data will influence direction.
USD/CHF
Summary: USD/CHF hovered around 0.8050, steady after two days of declines. The Dollar remained pressured by Fed cut expectations (~85% probability for December), while CHF held firm on SNB policy stability. Thin liquidity from Thanksgiving limited volatility.
Outlook: USD/CHF may remain soft unless Fed tone shifts. Swiss GDP and KOF Leading Indicator will shape CHF sentiment.
Final Summary
Sterling remained firm on supportive budget signals, while the Euro consolidated gains amid dovish Fed sentiment. The US Dollar weakened as cut bets intensified, despite stronger US data. The Australian Dollar held resilient on hotter inflation and private credit growth, while the Canadian Dollar awaited GDP data. The Swiss Franc traded steady as USD/CHF corrected lower.