Market Insight 28-11-2024

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  • Market Insight 28-11-2024

GBPEUR

Summary:
The GBPEUR pair holds steady around 0.8330. Market sentiment is shaped by the ECB’s concerns over economic growth and the BoE’s hesitation to accelerate rate cuts. German CPI inflation data for November is expected to rise slightly, which may provide short-term support for the Euro.

Outlook:

  • If German CPI data surpasses expectations, the Euro could gain ground.
  • However, any hawkish commentary from BoE officials may limit upward momentum for the EUR.
  • GBPEUR likely to trade within a narrow range, with slight volatility expected following key data releases.

EURUSD

Summary:
EURUSD edged lower to 1.0550 following a weak midweek performance for the USD. The pair experienced a brief rally earlier but faced headwinds as the USD Index stabilised above 106.00.

Outlook:

  • Eurozone inflation and sentiment data will be pivotal in determining near-term direction.
  • Persistent Fed caution and reduced expectations for an aggressive ECB easing cycle could keep EURUSD range bound.
  • The pair may test 1.0600 again if inflation data boosts Euro sentiment.

GBPUSD

Summary:
GBPUSD saw some consolidation after strong gains midweek, trading near 1.2660. The pair benefited from USD weakness but remains sensitive to mixed signals from the Fed and cautious rhetoric from BoE policymakers.

Outlook:

  • UK economic data scarcity may lead to subdued activity, leaving the pair at the mercy of US sentiment.
  • A clearer signal on BoE’s December rate decision could offer some support for the Pound.
  • GBPUSD likely to trade within the 1.2600–1.2700 range in the short term.

AUDUSD

Summary:
AUDUSD remains subdued around 0.6600, under pressure from the USD’s modest recovery and geopolitical concerns, particularly US sanctions on China. Despite strong Q3 capital expenditure data from Australia, the pair has struggled to build momentum.

Outlook:

  • Upcoming US policy announcements regarding China will weigh heavily on AUD sentiment.
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish tone may provide limited support, but broader risk aversion could cap gains.
  • Expect AUDUSD to trade with a bearish bias, with potential to test 0.6550 if USD strength persists.

Final Summary

The markets remain subdued in light of limited US participation due to Thanksgiving. Key upcoming data releases, particularly German CPI and Eurozone sentiment, are expected to provide direction. Major currency pairs are consolidating, reflecting the broader market caution and reduced activity.