25/04/2025
Written by: Ian Morley
Daily Currency Update – 28th March 2025
GBPEUR
Summary: The pound maintained its recent gains against the euro, breaking back above 1.20. UK retail sales data came in stronger than expected, supporting sterling, while the euro struggled as German economic sentiment remained subdued.
Outlook: Sterling may continue to benefit from resilient economic data, but market attention will turn to upcoming Eurozone inflation figures. If inflation remains low, it could add pressure on the euro and further support GBPEUR.
EURUSD
Summary: The euro saw limited movement against the dollar, with markets awaiting key inflation data from both regions. Stronger US GDP figures earlier in the week have kept the dollar supported, while the euro remains under pressure due to weak economic sentiment.
Outlook: Upcoming PCE inflation data from the US will be a key driver for the pair. If inflation remains firm, expectations of a delayed Fed rate cut could push EURUSD lower.
GBPUSD
Summary: The pound held steady against the dollar, with both currencies seeing support from their respective economic data releases. UK retail sales helped underpin sterling, while the dollar remained firm following strong growth data.
Outlook: With key US inflation data due, GBPUSD could see volatility. A higher-than-expected PCE reading could bolster the dollar, while any signs of a slowdown in UK economic activity may cap gains for sterling.
USDAUD
Summary: The US dollar continued to strengthen against the Australian dollar as risk-off sentiment weighed on commodity-linked currencies. Softer Australian retail sales figures added to the AUD’s weakness.
Outlook: Market focus will now shift to China’s manufacturing PMI, which could impact the AUD. If the data disappoints, AUD may see further downside against the USD.
USDCAD
Summary: The Canadian dollar weakened as oil prices slipped, erasing earlier gains. Stronger US data provided additional support for the greenback.
Outlook: Canada’s upcoming GDP figures will be critical for the pair. If growth falls short of expectations, the CAD could face further pressure, particularly if US economic data continues to impress.
USDCHF
Summary: The Swiss franc weakened slightly against the US dollar, with risk sentiment favouring the greenback. The SNB’s recent dovish tone has also contributed to CHF softness.
Outlook: If US inflation data remains strong, USDCHF could continue to push higher. However, any escalation in geopolitical tensions may see renewed demand for the safe-haven CHF.
Final Summary: Markets remain driven by economic data and central bank expectations. The pound holds steady on strong retail sales, while the euro remains subdued. The US dollar continues to find support from robust economic data. Looking ahead, key inflation readings and GDP figures will dictate near-term currency movements.