30/11/2025
Written by: Ian Morley
Daily Currency Market Update – 27th November 2025
GBP/EUR
Summary: GBP/EUR edged higher after Chancellor Reeves’ Autumn Budget was received as moderately supportive. Taxes were raised by £26bn, but fiscal headroom of £22bn reassured investors. The OBR projected weak GDP growth through 2027, with inflation only returning to BoE’s 2% target by then. Euro sentiment was supported by peace deal signals in Ukraine and cautious ECB commentary.
Outlook: GBP/EUR may remain firm if fiscal discipline is maintained. ECB minutes and Eurozone sentiment data will guide direction.
GBP/USD
Summary: GBP/USD rose above 1.3250, extending its winning streak to six sessions. Sterling gained on supportive budget measures, while the Dollar weakened as Fed cut bets surged to 84% for December. US data showed stronger Durable Goods Orders and lower Jobless Claims, but dovish Fed expectations remained intact.
Outlook: GBP/USD may consolidate unless US data surprises. Fed chair succession speculation and UK fiscal clarity will shape momentum.
EUR/USD
Summary: EUR/USD pulled back to 1.1585 after testing highs above 1.1600. The Euro remained supported by Fed easing expectations and peace deal optimism, though stronger US data capped gains. ECB minutes and Eurozone confidence data are in focus today.
Outlook: Euro may remain supported unless US yields rise. ECB tone and geopolitical developments will be pivotal.
AUD/USD
Summary: AUD/USD strengthened to 0.6500, extending gains for a fifth session. Private Capital Expenditure rose 6.4% q/q in Q3, while October CPI accelerated to 3.8% y/y, reinforcing RBA caution. The Dollar weakened on dovish Fed sentiment, adding support to AUD.
Outlook: AUD may remain firm if inflation momentum persists. RBA tone and US macro data will guide direction.
USD/CAD
Summary: USD/CAD eased to 1.4030, close to weekly lows, as Fed cut bets weighed on the Dollar. CAD traded steady ahead of Friday’s Q3 GDP release, while oil prices remained subdued.
Outlook: CAD may gain if GDP surprises positively. US ISM PMI and Canadian GDP will be key drivers.
USD/CHF
Summary: USD/CHF slipped to 0.8060, extending its correction from three-week highs above 0.8100. The Dollar weakened on dovish Fed expectations, while CHF held firm on SNB policy stability.
Outlook: USD/CHF may remain soft unless Fed tone shifts. SNB commentary and US macro data will shape CHF sentiment.
Final Summary
Sterling gained on supportive budget measures, while the Euro held firm on Fed easing hopes and peace deal optimism. The US Dollar weakened as dovish bets intensified despite stronger data. The Australian Dollar rallied on robust CPI and capital expenditure, while the Canadian Dollar steadied ahead of GDP. The Swiss Franc firmed as USD/CHF corrected lower.