30/11/2025
Written by: Ian Morley
Daily Currency Market Update – 26th November 2025
GBP/EUR
Summary: GBP/EUR holds near 1.1380 as investors await the UK Autumn Budget. Sterling remains under pressure from weak Retail Sales and fiscal uncertainty, while the Euro gains modest support from improved risk sentiment and hopes of progress toward a Ukraine peace deal. ECB’s Financial Stability Report and speeches from Lane and Lagarde are in focus.
Outlook: GBP/EUR may remain rangebound until budget clarity. Eurozone sentiment and ECB commentary will guide direction.
GBP/USD
Summary: GBP/USD trades around 1.3180 ahead of the UK Budget announcement. Reeves is expected to announce tax hikes of £20–30bn to address fiscal shortfalls. Gilt yields eased to 4.51% as fiscal risks moderated. Meanwhile, the Dollar weakened as Fed cut bets surged, with markets now pricing an 85% probability of a December cut.
Outlook: GBP/USD may gain if budget signals fiscal discipline. US Durable Goods and Jobless Claims will be key drivers.
EUR/USD
Summary: EUR/USD extended gains to near 1.1600, supported by Fed easing expectations and improved risk appetite. US data showed weaker Retail Sales (+0.2% m/m) and softer Consumer Confidence, reinforcing dovish Fed sentiment. Progress toward a Ukraine peace plan also buoyed the Euro.
Outlook: Euro may remain supported unless US data surprises. ECB commentary and US macro releases will shape momentum.
AUD/USD
Summary: AUD/USD rose to 0.6505 after October CPI accelerated to 3.8% y/y, above expectations. The stronger inflation print reinforced RBA caution, with officials signalling rates will remain steady at 3.6%. The Dollar weakened on dovish Fed commentary, adding support to AUD.
Outlook: AUD may remain firm if inflation momentum persists. RBA tone and US macro data will guide direction.
USD/CAD
Summary: USD/CAD eased to 1.4080 as Fed dovish expectations intensified. The Dollar softened after weak US data, while CAD traded steady amid expectations of BoC policy stability. Oil prices remained subdued, limiting CAD upside.
Outlook: CAD may gain if BoC signals policy pause. US Durable Goods and Canadian GDP later this week will be pivotal.
USD/CHF
Summary: USD/CHF slipped to mid-0.8000s, extending its pullback from three-week highs above 0.8100. The Dollar weakened as Fed cut bets rose to 85%, while CHF gained support from expectations of steady SNB policy and tariff relief.
Outlook: USD/CHF may remain soft unless Fed tone shifts. SNB commentary and US macro data will shape CHF sentiment.
Final Summary
Sterling trades cautiously ahead of Reeves’ Autumn Budget, while the Euro advanced on Fed easing hopes and improved risk sentiment. The US Dollar weakened as dovish bets intensified following soft data. The Australian Dollar rallied on stronger CPI, while the Canadian Dollar held steady near 1.4080. The Swiss Franc firmed as USD/CHF corrected lower.