30/11/2025
Written by: Ian Morley
Daily Currency Market Update – 25th November 2025
GBP/EUR
Summary: GBP/EUR rose to 1.1380 as traders positioned ahead of Wednesday’s Autumn Budget. Weak UK Retail Sales (-1.1% m/m in October) and softer inflation reinforced expectations of a December BoE rate cut, with swaps pricing a 60% probability. Meanwhile, the ECB remains cautious, signalling no further cuts in December and only slim chances in 2026. German GDP stalled in Q3.
Outlook: GBP/EUR may soften if Reeves’ budget signals fiscal tightening. ECB tone will guide Euro sentiment.
GBP/USD
Summary: GBP/USD edged lower to 1.3100 as gilt yields slipped to 4.54% ahead of the budget. Softer UK inflation (3.6% y/y in October) strengthened BoE easing bets, while the Dollar held firm despite rising Fed cut expectations. Markets now assign an 81% chance of a December Fed cut.
Outlook: GBP/USD may remain rangebound until budget clarity. US PPI, Retail Sales, and Consumer Confidence will be key drivers.
EUR/USD
Summary: EUR/USD hovered near 1.1520 after German GDP confirmed stalled growth in Q3. The Euro remained depressed amid weak Eurozone data, while dovish Fed remarks lifted US cut expectations. Traders await US macro releases for fresh direction.
Outlook: Euro may remain pressured unless PMIs or inflation surprise. ECB commentary and US data will shape momentum.
AUD/USD
Summary: AUD/USD slipped to 0.6450 as traders awaited Australia’s first expanded monthly CPI release. RBA minutes signalled a cautious stance, with futures pricing only a 6% chance of a December cut. The Dollar remained firm, though dovish Fed commentary capped upside.
Outlook: AUD may rebound if CPI surprises to the upside. RBA tone and US macro data will guide direction.
USD/CAD
Summary: USD/CAD held above 1.4100, supported by weaker oil and firm Dollar sentiment. Crude struggled amid oversupply concerns, while traders awaited Canadian GDP later in the week. The pair remained close to two-week highs.
Outlook: CAD may weaken further if oil remains soft. US PPI, Retail Sales, and Canadian GDP will be pivotal.
USD/CHF
Summary: USD/CHF traded near 0.8100, extending gains to multi-week highs. The Dollar held firm, while CHF underperformed amid risk-on sentiment and expectations of steady SNB policy. Traders awaited US macro data for fresh impetus.
Outlook: USD/CHF may consolidate unless Fed tone shifts. SNB commentary and US data will shape CHF sentiment.
Final Summary
Sterling traded cautiously ahead of Reeves’ Autumn Budget, with BoE cut bets weighing. The Euro remained subdued on weak German GDP, while the US Dollar consolidated as Fed cut expectations rose. The Australian Dollar slipped ahead of CPI data, while the Canadian Dollar stayed pressured by softer oil. The Swiss Franc underperformed as USD/CHF held near multi-week highs.