30/11/2025
Written by: Ian Morley
Daily Currency Market Update – 24th November 2025
GBP/EUR
Summary: GBP/EUR eased back to 1.1350 after weak UK Retail Sales (-1.1% m/m in October) reinforced expectations of a December BoE rate cut. Fiscal uncertainty ahead of Wednesday’s Autumn Budget also weighed on Sterling. Meanwhile, the ECB is seen nearing the end of its rate-cut cycle, with inflation contained near 2% and growth stable.
Outlook: GBP/EUR may remain pressured unless UK inflation or budget signals surprise. German IFO and ECB commentary will guide Euro sentiment.
GBP/USD
Summary: GBP/USD traded just below 1.3100, slipping as firmer USD and UK budget uncertainty capped gains. The Dollar held firm after upbeat NFP data and reduced Fed cut bets, while Sterling underperformed on rising BoE easing expectations.
Outlook: GBP/USD may consolidate unless US macro releases shift tone. UK Autumn Budget and US PCE data will be key drivers.
EUR/USD
Summary: EUR/USD ticked up to 1.1520 after bouncing from two-week lows at 1.1490. The Euro remained pressured by weak PMI data, while dovish Fed remarks on Friday offered some relief. German IFO and ECB speeches are in focus today.
Outlook: Euro may remain soft unless PMIs or IFO surprise. US data and Fed commentary will shape direction.
AUD/USD
Summary: AUD/USD held steady near 0.6500, supported by RBA’s cautious stance and anticipation of Wednesday’s full monthly CPI release. RBA officials reiterated the need to monitor inflation risks, while Fed cut bets lifted AUD sentiment.
Outlook: AUD may gain if CPI surprises to the upside. RBA tone and China’s macro signals will guide direction.
USD/CAD
Summary: USD/CAD consolidated near 1.4100 after failing to break 1.4130. The Dollar eased on dovish Fed remarks, while CAD remained capped by weaker oil prices. Traders await Canadian Retail Sales and US PMI data for fresh impetus.
Outlook: CAD may strengthen if oil rebounds. BoC tone and US macro data will influence direction.
USD/CHF
Summary: USD/CHF traded around 0.8080, extending its winning streak to seven sessions. The pair’s upside may be restrained as CHF gains support from expectations of steady SNB policy and a new US-Swiss tariff deal reducing duties to 15%.
Outlook: USD/CHF may consolidate unless Fed tone shifts. SNB commentary and inflation outlook will shape CHF sentiment.
Final Summary
Sterling remained pressured by weak Retail Sales and budget uncertainty, while the Euro steadied ahead of German IFO and ECB speeches. The US Dollar consolidated as Fed cut bets resurfaced. The Australian Dollar held firm on RBA caution and CPI anticipation, while the Canadian Dollar stayed capped by softer oil. The Swiss Franc gained support from tariff relief and SNB stability.