Market Insight 24-09-2025

• Written by: Ian Morley
• 24/09/2025

Daily Market Update: 24 September 2025

Key Currency Pair Movements

GBP/EUR

• Summary: The GBP/EUR cross is trading on a flat note near 1.1450 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. Pound Sterling is struggling to build on its recovery gains and is trading in the red near 1.3500.
• Outlook: Concerns over the economic downturn in France could weigh on the Euro against the Pound. However, concerns about new tax hikes in the UK could undermine the GBP. Traders are also bracing for the release of the German IFO Survey.

GBP/USD

• Summary: Pound Sterling weakened against the US Dollar and is trading around 1.3510 following disappointing UK S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for September. The UK S&P Global Composite PMI declined to 51.0, which was weaker than the expected 52.7.
• Outlook: According to an S&P Global Chief Business Economist, the UK PMI survey brought worrying news, including weakening growth, slumping overseas trade, worsening business confidence, and further steep job losses.

EUR/USD

• Summary: The Euro extended losses below 1.1780 as German business sentiment deteriorated. The US Dollar was underpinned by a cautious market mood.
• Outlook: The German IFO Business Climate Index fell to 87.7 in September from 89.0 in August, against expectations for an improvement to 89.3. This weak data, along with a sour market sentiment, is weighing on the Euro.

AUD/USD

• Summary: The Australian Dollar is gaining traction and trading above 0.6600, outperforming its peers. This is largely due to the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) growing at a faster pace of 3% in August, exceeding market expectations of 2.9% and the prior reading of 2.8%.
• Outlook: Signs of accelerating price pressures in Australia are expected to prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to avoid reducing interest rates in the policy meeting next week.

USD/CAD

• Summary: The US Dollar has rallied for a third consecutive day against the Canadian Dollar, reaching its highest level in nearly two weeks, above 1.3850.
• Outlook: This upward movement is attributed to a cautious market mood and ongoing geopolitical risks, which have increased demand for the safe-haven US Dollar. The Canadian Dollar’s upside attempts are limited as the market anticipates further rate cuts by the Bank of Canada (BoC).

USD/CHF

• Summary: The USD/CHF pair is trading calmly around 0.7920 as the US Dollar has stabilised following a speech by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell.
• Outlook: The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to hold interest rates steady at zero on Thursday as inflation remains significantly lower.

Final Summary

Major currency pairs are struggling to find a clear direction as markets await new catalysts, including German business sentiment and US housing data. The Euro has softened against the US Dollar following weaker-than-expected German business climate data, while the Pound Sterling has also lost ground due to disappointing UK PMI figures and fiscal concerns. The Canadian Dollar has weakened against the US Dollar as cautious market sentiment has increased demand for the safe-haven greenback. The Australian Dollar, however, is outperforming its peers after stronger-than-expected inflation data. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has maintained a cautious stance on further rate cuts, highlighting the challenges of balancing inflation risks with labour market weakness, although the market continues to anticipate further easing.