01/10/2025
Written by: Ian Morley
Daily Currency Market Update – 24th July 2025
GBP/EUR
Summary: GBP/EUR edged lower to 1.1525 as the Euro gained on optimism surrounding a potential EU–US trade deal. Reports suggest both sides are nearing agreement on a 15% reciprocal tariff, helping the Euro outperform ahead of today’s ECB rate decision. Sterling remains under pressure from persistent UK fiscal concerns and expectations of a BoE rate cut in August.
Outlook: If the ECB maintains a steady tone and UK PMI data disappoints, GBP/EUR may drift lower. A confirmed trade deal could further support the Euro.
GBP/USD
Summary: GBP/USD holds near 1.3580 after four consecutive days of gains, supported by risk-on sentiment and anticipation of upbeat UK PMI data. The Dollar remains subdued amid easing concerns over Fed independence and improved global trade prospects following the US–Japan agreement.
Outlook: UK PMI and US data releases will be pivotal. If UK business activity improves and Fed rhetoric remains cautious, GBP/USD could extend gains toward 1.3600.
EUR/USD
Summary: EUR/USD consolidates above 1.1750, supported by hopes of a 15% EU–US tariff deal and expectations that the ECB will hold rates steady. The Euro remains firm despite lingering trade uncertainty, with ECB President Lagarde expected to keep policy options open during today’s press conference.
Outlook: If the ECB strikes a hawkish tone and US data underwhelms, EUR/USD may test resistance near 1.1775. A breakdown in trade talks could reverse gains.
USD/AUD
Summary: AUD/USD trades above 0.6600, its highest level since November, buoyed by strong Australian PMI data and improving risk appetite. The Composite PMI rose to 53.6, marking the tenth consecutive month of expansion. RBA Governor Bullock reiterated a cautious approach to easing, supporting the Aussie.
Outlook: If US PMI data disappoints and trade sentiment remains positive, AUD/USD could extend gains. However, global uncertainty may cap upside.
USD/CAD
Summary: USD/CAD remains steady near 1.3600, with the Loonie supported by risk-on flows and anticipation of Canadian Retail Sales data. Oil price softness and lingering trade tensions with the US continue to weigh, though sentiment has improved following recent tariff negotiations.
Outlook: If Canadian data surprises to the upside and US PMI prints soft, USD/CAD may drift lower. Trade headlines and crude trends remain key.
USD/CHF
Summary: USD/CHF consolidates around 0.7920, pressured by Fed uncertainty and trade optimism. The Dollar remains weak amid speculation over Powell’s future, while the Swiss Franc sees reduced safe-haven demand as risk sentiment improves.
Outlook: ECB policy signals and US data will guide movement. If risk appetite holds and Fed commentary remains dovish, USD/CHF may remain range-bound.
Final Summary
Currency markets are focused on today’s ECB rate decision and PMI releases across major economies. Sterling is steady against the Dollar but softer versus the Euro, while the Euro gains on trade optimism. The US Dollar remains under pressure amid Fed uncertainty and improving global sentiment. Commodity-linked currencies like the Aussie and Loonie are supported by domestic data and trade developments. The Swiss Franc consolidates as safe-haven flows ease.