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Market Insight 24-02-2026

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  • Market Insight 24-02-2026

Daily Currency Market Update – Tuesday, 24 February 2026

Market Overview

The US Dollar stabilises after a volatile start to the week, with the USD Index edging higher toward 97.90 as markets digest the fallout from the Supreme Court’s ruling against Trump’s IEEPA‑based tariffs and the administration’s rapid shift toward new national‑security tariffs under Section 232.

Safe‑haven flows supported the Dollar on Monday as US equities opened sharply lower, though futures are modestly higher this morning. The White House is reportedly preparing targeted tariffs across several industries, adding to uncertainty around global trade.

The PBoC left its Loan Prime Rates unchanged, offering little market impact. EUR/USD trades near 1.1770, GBP/USD remains below 1.3500, and AUD/USD holds firm ahead of Wednesday’s Australian CPI. USD/CAD edges higher despite tariff uncertainty, while USD/CHF ticks up as markets reassess the durability of US trade measures.

GBP/EUR

GBP/EUR ~1.1440

The cross remains flat as renewed trade uncertainty weighs more heavily on the Euro than the Pound.

Drivers

  • US tariff uncertainty pressures EUR more than GBP, given the Eurozone’s greater trade exposure.
  • European Parliament delays US trade‑deal ratification pending clarity on US policy.
  • UK Retail Sales and PMIs remain supportive for GBP.
  • BoE’s Taylor signals 2–3 more rate cuts may be needed before reaching neutral.
  • German GDP and Eurozone inflation due Wednesday.

Outlook: GBP/EUR likely to remain range‑bound until Eurozone data provides clearer direction.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD ~1.3480

Sterling holds below 1.3500 as BoE cut expectations weigh and USD rebounds.

Drivers

  • USD recovers after two days of losses as safe‑haven flows return.
  • GBP pressured by expectations of a March BoE rate cut.
  • BoE’s Taylor highlights risks of “lower inflation and higher unemployment.”
  • US tariff uncertainty could limit USD upside if foreign investors avoid US assets.
  • ADP 4‑week average and Fed speakers in focus today.

Outlook: GBP/USD remains vulnerable; a break below 1.3450 would expose the 1.3400 area.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD ~1.1795

The Euro gains modestly as tariff uncertainty weighs on the Dollar.

Drivers

  • EUR/USD holds near 1.18 as markets reassess US trade policy risks.
  • EU may freeze US trade‑deal approval pending clarity from Washington.
  • Lagarde emphasises the need for “agility” in policy decisions.
  • US PPI on Friday will be key for USD direction.

Outlook: EUR/USD supported near 1.18; upside capped unless US data disappoints.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD ~0.7065

The Australian Dollar outperforms ahead of key inflation data.

Drivers

  • AUD firm as markets await Wednesday’s Australian CPI (expected 3.7% YoY).
  • RBA maintains tightening bias; inflation risks remain elevated.
  • USD firm overall but softer against AUD due to tariff uncertainty.
  • Trump threatens steeper levies on countries “playing games” with trade agreements.

Outlook: AUD/USD remains constructive above 0.7030; CPI will determine whether the pair can retest 0.7100.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD ~1.3715

The pair edges higher despite tariff uncertainty as CAD softens.

Drivers

  • USD supported by safe‑haven flows and tariff headlines.
  • CAD pressured ahead of Friday’s Canadian GDP (expected 0.1% MoM).
  • Oil prices supported by geopolitical tensions, offering some CAD relief.
  • US PPI on Friday will be key for USD direction.

Outlook: USD/CAD remains supported above 1.3680; a weak Canadian GDP print could push the pair toward 1.3750.

USD/CHF

USD/CHF ~0.7760

The Dollar edges higher as markets look past tariff uncertainty.

Drivers

  • USD steadies after Monday’s rebound.
  • CHF supported by risk‑off sentiment amid US–Iran tensions.
  • Markets expect SNB to keep rates steady as inflation remains at 0.1%.
  • US PPI on Friday will guide next USD/CHF move.

Outlook: USD/CHF likely to remain range‑bound; geopolitical headlines remain the main driver.

Final Summary

The US Dollar rebounds as markets reassess the implications of the Supreme Court ruling and Trump’s rapid shift toward new national‑security tariffs. Sterling remains soft below 1.3500 as BoE cut expectations build, while the Euro stabilises near 1.18 amid EU–US trade tensions. The Australian Dollar outperforms ahead of key CPI data, and CAD softens despite firmer oil prices. CHF remains supported by safe‑haven flows. Today’s US confidence data and Fed speakers will shape intraday direction ahead of Friday’s PPI.