27/10/2025
Written by: Ian Morley
Daily Currency Market Update – 23rd October 2025
GBP/EUR
Summary: GBP/EUR remains choppy within a 70-pip range, returning above 1.15 after the Euro gave back Wednesday’s gains. The pair continues to form a symmetrical wedge pattern, reflecting indecision. Sterling sentiment remains fragile following softer-than-expected UK inflation data, which showed a 3.8% y/y rise in September versus the 4.0% forecast.
Outlook: Expectations of further BoE rate cuts before year-end may weigh on the Pound. Eurozone Consumer Confidence and ECB commentary will guide near-term direction.
GBP/USD
Summary: GBP/USD holds steady near 1.3350 after staging a late rebound on Wednesday. The pair had come under pressure earlier in the session as markets reacted to the UK’s softer inflation print.
Outlook: Sterling may remain rangebound ahead of US housing data and Friday’s CPI release. BoE rate expectations and Fed commentary will shape direction.
EUR/USD
Summary: EUR/USD trades narrowly below 1.1600 as fresh US-China trade tensions support the Dollar. The pair drifted lower at the European open, down from Wednesday’s high of 1.1620.
Outlook: Euro may remain subdued if US CPI surprises to the upside. ECB speeches and Eurozone Consumer Confidence will also be key.
AUD/USD
Summary: AUD/USD recovers ground on Thursday, supported by optimism surrounding a US-China trade deal and improved sentiment following the US-Australia critical minerals agreement. However, the pair faces headwinds from rising RBA rate cut expectations, with markets pricing a 70% chance of a 25bps cut after Australia’s unemployment rate hit a four-year high.
Outlook: AUD may remain volatile ahead of flash PMIs and next week’s Q3 CPI. China’s economic signals and trade developments will be pivotal.
USD/CAD
Summary: USD/CAD trades near 1.3990, pressured by firmer oil prices and anticipation of Canadian Retail Sales data. Crude rose to a two-week high after US sanctions on Russian oil firms, supporting the Loonie.
Outlook: CAD may strengthen if Retail Sales beat expectations. US-Canada trade tensions and Fed rate expectations will guide direction.
USD/CHF
Summary: USD/CHF steadies around 0.7950, consolidating after Tuesday’s rebound. Trade optimism has reduced safe-haven demand, while persistent Swiss deflation continues to pressure the SNB.
Outlook: USD/CHF may remain rangebound ahead of US CPI and Fed decision. SNB policy signals and inflation data will be key for CHF direction.
Final Summary
Sterling trades cautiously as softer inflation data fuels BoE rate cut expectations. The Euro remains subdued amid trade tensions and political uncertainty. The US Dollar is supported by safe-haven flows and anticipation of Friday’s CPI release. Commodity currencies are mixed, with AUD buoyed by trade optimism but weighed by RBA cut bets, and CAD supported by oil strength. The Swiss Franc holds steady as traders await inflation signals and central bank guidance.