21/11/2025
Written by: Ian Morley
Daily Currency Market Update – 21st November 2025
GBP/EUR
Summary: GBP/EUR softened below 1.1330 as BoE rate cut expectations intensified. Retail Sales fell 1.1% m/m in October, reinforcing concerns over UK growth. Interest-rate swaps now price an 87% probability of a December cut. Meanwhile, the ECB’s cautious stance continues to support the Euro, with policymakers signalling rates will remain unchanged through 2026.
Outlook: GBP/EUR may remain pressured unless UK PMIs surprise to the upside. Eurozone PMI and ECB commentary will guide sentiment.
GBP/USD
Summary: GBP/USD found thin support near 1.3050 after four days of losses. UK CPI confirmed cooling inflation, while weak Retail Sales added to BoE easing bets. The Dollar held firm on strong NFP data, which showed 119K jobs added in September, closing the door on a December Fed cut.
Outlook: GBP/USD may remain rangebound unless UK PMIs or US sentiment data shift tone. Autumn Budget and Fed commentary remain key.
EUR/USD
Summary: EUR/USD recovered modestly to 1.1545 after hitting two-week lows near 1.1500. The Euro remains vulnerable, with the Dollar supported by strong NFP and fading Fed cut bets. Eurozone PMI data will be closely watched for signs of resilience.
Outlook: Euro may consolidate unless PMI surprises. ECB speeches and US sentiment data will be pivotal.
AUD/USD
Summary: AUD/USD strengthened to 0.6450 after upbeat PMI data. Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.6, while Services PMI climbed to 52.7, signalling ongoing expansion. The Aussie gained as Fed cut bets increased following mixed US labour data.
Outlook: AUD may remain supported if risk sentiment improves. RBA tone and China’s policy stance will guide direction.
USD/CAD
Summary: USD/CAD dipped below 1.4100 but downside remained limited. The Dollar paused after strong gains, while sliding oil prices weighed on the Loonie. WTI retreated to $60.40 amid oversupply concerns, limiting CAD strength.
Outlook: CAD may weaken further if oil remains soft. Canadian Retail Sales and US PMI data will influence direction.
USD/CHF
Summary: USD/CHF corrected to 0.8040 after hitting a weekly high of 0.8078. The Dollar’s rally paused as NFP data was deemed “stale,” though job creation remained robust. CHF held firm ahead of SNB Chair Schlegel’s speech, with inflation outlook in focus.
Outlook: USD/CHF may consolidate unless SNB signals policy change. US PMI and Fed commentary will shape CHF sentiment.
Final Summary
Sterling weakened on soft Retail Sales and BoE cut expectations, while the Euro steadied ahead of PMI data. The US Dollar consolidated weekly gains after strong NFP closed the door on a December Fed cut. The Australian Dollar strengthened on upbeat PMI, while the Canadian Dollar remained pressured by weaker oil. The Swiss Franc held firm as USD/CHF corrected from highs.