20/11/2025
Written by: Ian Morley
Daily Currency Market Update – 20th November 2025
GBP/EUR
Summary: GBP/EUR tested 1.1300 before rebounding to 1.1340, as BoE rate cut expectations remained elevated following soft UK inflation and labour data. The upcoming Autumn Budget adds fiscal uncertainty. Meanwhile, the ECB is expected to hold rates through 2026, supported by stable inflation and growth.
Outlook: GBP/EUR may remain pressured unless UK retail sales or PMIs surprise. Eurozone sentiment and ECB tone will guide direction.
GBP/USD
Summary: GBP/USD recovered modestly to 1.3060 after four days of losses, ahead of the delayed US NFP release. UK CPI confirmed cooling inflation, reinforcing December BoE cut expectations. The US Dollar held firm on hawkish Fed minutes and cautious market tone.
Outlook: GBP/USD may remain rangebound unless NFP surprises. UK budget and US labour data will shape direction.
EUR/USD
Summary: EUR/USD extended its decline to 1.1520, marking five consecutive daily losses. The pair was weighed by hawkish Fed minutes and fading rate cut bets, with traders awaiting US NFP and Eurozone sentiment data.
Outlook: Euro may remain soft unless US data disappoints. ECB tone and US payrolls will be pivotal.
AUD/USD
Summary: AUD/USD slipped to 0.6470 as risk sentiment soured and Fed cut odds declined. Wage growth met expectations at 3.4% y/y, while RBA minutes signalled a balanced stance. The Aussie remains sensitive to global equity moves and US data.
Outlook: AUD may stabilise if PMIs or NFP surprise. RBA tone and China’s macro signals will guide direction.
USD/CAD
Summary: USD/CAD held near 1.4060, supported by softer oil and firm Dollar. WTI retreated after a large API inventory build, while BoC is expected to hold rates steady amid elevated wage and inflation pressures.
Outlook: CAD may weaken if oil remains soft. US NFP and BoC tone will influence direction.
USD/CHF
Summary: USD/CHF climbed to 0.8070, a near two-week high, supported by hawkish Fed minutes and weaker Swiss GDP. The pair broke above its 100-day SMA, though SNB policy stability and safe-haven flows may cap upside.
Outlook: USD/CHF may extend gains if NFP beats. SNB tone and inflation outlook will shape CHF sentiment.
Final Summary
Sterling steadied ahead of key UK data and budget risks, while the Euro extended losses on Fed-driven Dollar strength. The US Dollar rallied on hawkish FOMC minutes and fading rate cut bets, with NFP in focus. The Australian Dollar weakened on risk aversion, while the Canadian Dollar held near 1.4060 amid softer oil. The Swiss Franc underperformed as USD/CHF broke higher.