01/10/2025
Written by: Ian Morley
Daily Currency Market Update – 19th August 2025
GBP/EUR
Summary: GBP/EUR trades near 1.1570, steady after Monday’s modest pullback. Sterling remains supported by last week’s strong UK GDP and factory data, while the Euro is buoyed by cautious optimism following Trump’s proposal for a direct meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy. The US President has initiated arrangements for a trilateral summit, raising hopes of a breakthrough in the Russia–Ukraine conflict.
Outlook: If peace talks gain traction and UK CPI confirms sticky inflation, GBP/EUR may attempt a move higher. Eurozone sentiment and ECB commentary will also be key.
GBP/USD
Summary: GBP/USD holds firm above 1.3550, consolidating after a strong two-week rally. Sterling continues to benefit from resilient UK macro data and tempered BoE easing expectations. The Dollar remains subdued as traders await Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech and today’s US Retail Sales and Michigan Sentiment figures.
Outlook: If UK inflation surprises to the upside and Fed rhetoric remains dovish, GBP/USD may test resistance near 1.3600. US data and geopolitical developments will guide direction.
EUR/USD
Summary: EUR/USD trades near 1.1700, supported by risk-on flows and fading impact from last week’s hot US PPI print. The Euro remains firm ahead of Eurozone Trade Balance data, while the Dollar is range-bound as markets await Fed guidance and peace developments in Ukraine.
Outlook: If US data disappoints and Eurozone sentiment improves, EUR/USD may attempt a break above 1.1730. Otherwise, consolidation is likely.
USD/AUD
Summary: AUD/USD trades above 0.6500, supported by stable risk sentiment and reduced urgency for further RBA easing. The Aussie continues to benefit from strong domestic employment data and China’s tariff truce extension.
Outlook: If US data underwhelms and global sentiment holds, AUD/USD may attempt further gains. RBA commentary and Chinese growth signals remain influential.
USD/CAD
Summary: USD/CAD holds near 1.3780, steady ahead of Canadian CPI data due Tuesday. The Loonie remains supported by stable oil prices and cautious BoC commentary, while the Dollar is subdued on Fed rate cut expectations.
Outlook: If Canadian inflation remains elevated and Fed dovishness persists, USD/CAD may drift lower. Oil trends and US data will also influence movement.
USD/CHF
Summary: USD/CHF trades around 0.8050, consolidating ahead of key US data and geopolitical headlines. The Swiss Franc remains firm amid safe-haven demand and subdued domestic inflation, while the Dollar is pressured by rising Fed cut expectations.
Outlook: If peace talks stall and Fed signals easing, USD/CHF may remain range-bound. SNB commentary and Jackson Hole developments will guide direction.
Final Summary
Sterling remains supported by strong UK fundamentals, while the Euro and Swiss Franc benefit from geopolitical optimism and safe-haven flows. The US Dollar is subdued ahead of key data and Fed commentary, with rate cut expectations still elevated. Commodity-linked currencies like the Aussie and Loonie are steady, supported by domestic resilience and stable risk sentiment. Traders now turn to UK CPI, Canadian inflation, and Jackson Hole for fresh momentum.