06/12/2024
Written by: Ian Morley
Summary:
The US dollar strengthened across the board yesterday, even though data revealed a higher-than-expected number of people filing for jobless claims, indicating a weakening job market. The dollar’s gains might be linked to reports suggesting Joe Biden will exit the presidential race this weekend, bringing some market certainty. Notably, in a recent Bloomberg interview, both Donald Trump and his vice-presidential pick JD Vance advocated for a weaker dollar, indicating potential volatility with any changes in the leadership race.
As anticipated, the European Central Bank (ECB) did not alter interest rates but raised further doubts about the likelihood of two additional rate cuts this year. This has not shifted market expectations significantly, thus having a limited impact on the euro.
Speeches:
Market Insight:
With no significant data releases today, it is probable that the US dollar will continue its gains from yesterday as markets reassess the political situation in the United States. The British pound’s recent surge may have also ended in the short term, especially since inflation and wage figures did not meet expectations this week. Additionally, this morning’s retail sales figures, which came in lower than forecasted, are negatively impacting the pound.
Looking forward to next week, key releases include PMI figures from the UK, US, and EU, as well as Q2 GDP numbers and core PCE inflation data from the US.