Market Insight 17-06-2024

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  • Market Insight 17-06-2024


USD gains continued on Friday, with both GBPUSD and EURUSD trading through prior support levels, reaching 1-month lows. This contrasts sharply with the moves seen after Wednesday’s CPI release. USD gains were bolstered by higher-than-expected 1-year inflation figures from the University of Michigan, at 3.3%, and market anxiety over French political risks driving investors towards the safe haven of the USD.

GBPEUR reached a fresh 22-month high early in the day, but gains were short-lived as the pair ended lower. GBP had a generally poor day, likely due to market concerns ahead of this week’s CPI release and the Bank of England meeting.


  • ECB: Lane, Lagarde, Guindos, Makhlouf
  • USD: Fed Harker

Market Insight:

GBP is in the spotlight this week with the release of CPI on Wednesday morning, the Bank of England meeting on Thursday, and retail sales and PMI numbers on Friday. Markets expect inflation to have moderated in May from April, with the risk being that a smaller decline could result in a dovish tone from the Bank of England on Thursday, potentially shifting market expectations for rate cuts from November to August or September.

Interest rate decisions from the Swiss National Bank and the Reserve Bank of Australia are also due, with no changes expected, though the forward guidance will be crucial.

USD experienced a significant turnaround last week, driven by a hawkish Fed meeting and political risk in France pushing markets towards safe havens. Major US data points this week include retail sales on Tuesday and PMI on Friday, alongside numerous Fed speeches to consider.

For the EUR, the French elections remain a significant risk factor. Over the weekend, polls showed Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party with a substantial lead, followed by the left-wing Popular Front, with Macron’s Renaissance party in third place.