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Market Insight 17-02-2026

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  • Market Insight 17-02-2026

Daily Currency Market Update – Tuesday, 17 February 2026

Market Overview

Markets reopen after the long US weekend with a clear tilt toward risk‑off positioning, driving safe‑haven flows into the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc. The US Dollar Index holds steady near 97.00, supported by softer Treasury yields — the 10‑year sits near 4.02%, its lowest level since early December.

UK labour market data disappointed, reinforcing expectations of a March BoE rate cut and weighing on Sterling across the board. EUR/USD extends its decline below 1.1850, pressured by weak Eurozone sentiment data. AUD/USD remains subdued after the RBA minutes highlighted persistent inflation risks and a data‑dependent stance. USD/CAD trades around 1.3650 ahead of Canada’s CPI release, while USD/CHF drifts lower as CHF strength persists.

GBP/EUR

GBP/EUR ~1.1460

The cross moves lower as weak UK labour data boosts BoE easing expectations.

Drivers

  • UK unemployment rose to 5.2%, the highest in nearly five years.
  • Claimant count surged to 28.6K in January.
  • Wage growth slowed to 4.2%, reinforcing expectations of a March BoE cut.
  • German CPI confirmed at 2.1% YoY, offering little support to EUR.
  • ECB cut speculation is rising but remains more muted than BoE expectations.

Outlook: GBP/EUR bias remains lower; UK CPI tomorrow and Eurozone sentiment today will guide direction.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD ~1.3570

Sterling extends losses as UK labour data disappoints and BoE cut bets rise.

Drivers

  • GBP/USD hits fresh 10‑day lows after unemployment jumps to 5.2%.
  • Wage growth slowdown adds to the case for BoE easing.
  • UK GDP last week also undershot expectations, reinforcing economic concerns.
  • USD supported by safe‑haven flows and lower Treasury yields.
  • Fed speakers and Empire State Manufacturing Index due later today.

Outlook: GBP/USD remains vulnerable; a break below 1.3550 would expose the 1.3510 support zone.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD ~1.1845

The Euro weakens as sentiment deteriorates across Germany and the Eurozone.

Drivers

  • German ZEW Expectations fell to 58.3 (vs 65.0 expected).
  • Eurozone ZEW dropped to 39.4, missing expectations of 45.2.
  • German HICP confirmed at 2.1% YoY, keeping ECB easing speculation alive.
  • USD mildly bid in risk‑off conditions ahead of key US data later this week.

Outlook: EUR/USD remains under pressure; a sustained break below 1.1830 risks a move toward 1.1780.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD ~0.7070

The Australian Dollar softens after RBA minutes highlight persistent inflation risks.

Drivers

  • RBA minutes show February’s hike was driven by stronger data and broad inflation pressures.
  • Policymakers emphasised no preset rate path; decisions remain data‑dependent.
  • Traders await Australia’s Wage Price Index (Wednesday) and labour data (Thursday).
  • USD steadies after Monday’s modest gains.

Outlook: AUD/USD likely to remain range‑bound until Australian wages and jobs data provide clarity.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD ~1.3650

The pair holds firm as CAD struggles with weaker oil and oversupply concerns.

Drivers

  • WTI trades near $63.20, pressured by oversupply fears.
  • Reports suggest OPEC+ may resume output increases in April.
  • Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz limit downside in oil.
  • USD supported by caution ahead of FOMC minutes and US GDP/PCE later this week.
  • Canada CPI expected at 2.4% YoY on Tuesday.

Outlook: USD/CAD remains supported; a hot Canada CPI print is needed to push the pair lower.

USD/CHF

USD/CHF ~0.7690

The pair edges lower as CHF strength persists and markets await US data.

Drivers

  • USD/CHF trades near the bottom of its recent range (0.7650–0.7730).
  • Swiss CPI fell 0.1% MoM, but CHF remains firm on safe‑haven demand.
  • Speculation grows about potential SNB intervention to curb CHF strength.
  • US markets reopen today; FOMC minutes and Q4 GDP in focus.

Outlook: USD/CHF likely to stay heavy unless US data surprises to the upside.

Final Summary

Markets reopen with a cautious tone, driving safe‑haven flows and weighing on risk‑sensitive currencies. Sterling drops sharply after weak UK labour data reinforces expectations of a March BoE cut. The Euro softens as sentiment indicators disappoint, while the Australian Dollar remains subdued following hawkish‑leaning RBA minutes. CAD struggles with softer oil prices and trade uncertainty, and CHF remains firm on safe‑haven demand. Today’s ZEW sentiment, Canada CPI, and US data will set the tone ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and UK CPI.