Market Insight 16-04-2024

• Written by: Ian Morley
• 16/04/2024

Summary:

UK retail sales exceeded expectations in March, leading to a rise in US treasury yields to 4.64% and further gains for the USD, resulting in EURUSD hitting new 6-month lows. The data underscores the outperformance of the US economy compared to initial projections.

Speeches:

• EUR: ECB speeches by Rehn, Villeroy, and Vujcic
• USD: Speeches by Fed’s Powell, Jefferson, and Barkin
• GBP: Speech by BoE’s Baileu

Market Insight:

Today’s job market data presents a mixed picture, with weekly earnings surpassing expectations but the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% from 3.9%. GBP shows mixed performance, with market expectations leaning towards a rate cut by the BoE in August. Tomorrow’s inflation figures at 7 am will be crucial for GBP. USD starts the day slightly higher, maintaining its upward trend. Several speakers from ECB, Fed, and BoE are scheduled.

Analysis:

GBPEUR is once again nearing yearly highs, with markets increasingly anticipating an interest rate cut by the ECB before the Bank of England. Current pricing indicates an 87% probability of a rate cut in June, contrasting with a 40% chance for the same month.