Market Insight 16-04-2024

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  • Market Insight 16-04-2024


UK retail sales exceeded expectations in March, leading to a rise in US treasury yields to 4.64% and further gains for the USD, resulting in EURUSD hitting new 6-month lows. The data underscores the outperformance of the US economy compared to initial projections.


  • EUR: ECB speeches by Rehn, Villeroy, and Vujcic
  • USD: Speeches by Fed’s Powell, Jefferson, and Barkin
  • GBP: Speech by BoE’s Baileu

Market Insight:

Today’s job market data presents a mixed picture, with weekly earnings surpassing expectations but the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% from 3.9%. GBP shows mixed performance, with market expectations leaning towards a rate cut by the BoE in August. Tomorrow’s inflation figures at 7 am will be crucial for GBP. USD starts the day slightly higher, maintaining its upward trend. Several speakers from ECB, Fed, and BoE are scheduled.


GBPEUR is once again nearing yearly highs, with markets increasingly anticipating an interest rate cut by the ECB before the Bank of England. Current pricing indicates an 87% probability of a rate cut in June, contrasting with a 40% chance for the same month.