Daily Market Update: 15 October 2025
Key Currency Pair Movements
GBP/EUR
- Summary: The GBP/EUR pair is trading in a tight range, consolidating its position as both Pound Sterling and the Euro benefit from the broader US Dollar weakness.
- Outlook: Pound Sterling (GBP) lacks a clear domestic catalyst today, with its movement therefore being determined by the relative strength of the Euro (EUR). The Euro is finding strong traction as the US Dollar (USD) continues its slide, driven by renewed US-China trade tensions and dovish Federal Reserve rhetoric. Since both currencies are finding similar, external support against the USD, the cross remains range-bound.
GBP/USD
- Summary: Pound Sterling extends its gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday.
- Outlook: The GBP/USD pair is being driven higher by a broad-based decline in the US Dollar. This USD weakness is due to renewed US-China trade tensions, with US President Donald Trump threatening to terminate some business with China. Additionally, dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials supporting further rate cuts this year also pressure the pair higher.
EUR/USD
- Summary: The pair climbs on Wednesday, extending its recovery amid US Dollar weakness.
- Outlook: The Euro (EUR) is finding strong traction as the US Dollar continues its slide, trading around 1.1620. The downside pressure on the USD is directly linked to the escalating trade rhetoric from the US President, which has caused the USD Index to drop by nearly 0.3%. Further support for the pair comes from Federal Reserve policymakers who are explicitly arguing in favour of reducing interest rates in the remaining year.
AUD/USD
- Summary: The Australian Dollar trades with caution, failing to capture the full momentum of the weak US Dollar.
- Outlook: As a risk-sensitive currency with strong trade links to China, the Australian Dollar (AUD) is being held back by the specific nature of the US-China dispute. The US President’s threat to terminate business related to cooking oil and soybeans, major agricultural commodities, introduces significant trade uncertainty, capping the AUD/USD’s ability to rally despite the broad USD decline.
USD/CAD
- Summary: The USD/CAD pair trades lower on Wednesday, with the US Dollar losing ground against the Canadian Dollar.
- Outlook: The decline in the US Dollar (USD) is the primary driver for the pair today. The growing tensions in US-China trade relations and the general risk-off environment—which often supports the Canadian Dollar due to its commodity links—are pushing the pair lower. The movement reflects the broader market reaction to the escalating trade war rhetoric.
USD/CHF
- Summary: The pair faces selling pressure, trading below 0.8000 as the Swiss Franc (CHF) receives support.
- Outlook: The Swiss Franc is appreciating due to domestic and international factors. Cooling price pressures, evidenced by the 0.2% monthly drop in Producer and Import Prices in September, are boosting expectations that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may be compelled to push interest rates into negative territory. This, combined with the US Dollar’s extension of its downside, puts the pair under pressure.
Final Summary
The US Dollar (USD) is trading lower, with the USD Index down nearly 0.3% to 98.76, as markets react to renewed threats from US President Donald Trump to terminate some trade ties with China over agricultural concerns.
On the monetary policy front, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell adopted a neutral tone on Tuesday but acknowledged that downside risks to the labour market had risen. This has been interpreted as dovish, with Fed Governor Michelle Bowman and Boston President Susan Collins explicitly arguing in favour of reducing interest rates in the remaining year, further contributing to the USD’s decline.
Meanwhile, the ongoing US government shutdown remains a political flashpoint, with President Trump announcing he will permanently shut down Democrats’ programmes and unveil the list on Friday.
Written by: Ian Morley