28/10/2025
Written by: Ian Morley
Daily Currency Market Update – 15th September 2025
GBP/EUR
Summary: GBP/EUR rose to 1.1572 following stronger-than-expected UK GDP and Industrial Production data. Monthly GDP printed at 0.4% in July, beating expectations of 0.2%, while Industrial Production rose 1.2% m/m. The Euro remains under pressure amid political instability in France, where President Macron is expected to appoint a new Prime Minister following Bayrou’s failed confidence vote.
Outlook: Sterling may remain supported if Wednesday’s UK CPI confirms inflation persistence. Euro sentiment is likely to stay fragile until clarity emerges on France’s fiscal direction and coalition stability.
GBP/USD
Summary: GBP/USD climbed to 1.3568, supported by upbeat UK macro data and softer US inflation. Traders now price in a 25bps Fed rate cut on Wednesday, with odds of a 50bps move falling to 6%.
Outlook: GBP/USD may extend gains if UK CPI surprises to the upside and Fed commentary remains dovish. US retail sales and BoE expectations will guide direction.
EUR/USD
Summary: EUR/USD edged up to 1.1720, consolidating after last week’s ECB hold. The Euro remains pressured by soft growth data and political uncertainty in France, where coalition talks continue following Bayrou’s defeat.
Outlook: Euro may struggle unless Eurozone inflation rebounds or ECB rhetoric shifts. US retail sales and Fed guidance will be key for short-term momentum.
AUD/USD
Summary: AUD/USD rose to 0.6592, supported by stronger Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales. China’s Industrial Production rose 4.6% y/y in August, while Retail Sales grew 3.9%, both beating expectations.
Outlook: AUD may remain supported if risk sentiment holds and US Dollar softens. RBA commentary and Chinese growth signals will shape direction.
USD/CAD
Summary: USD/CAD slipped to 1.3842, weighed by firmer oil prices and cautious Fed sentiment. WTI crude rose above $65, offering support to the Loonie despite lingering BoC rate cut expectations.
Outlook: CAD may gain if oil prices remain elevated and Canadian inflation surprises. US retail sales and Fed commentary will influence near-term moves.
USD/CHF
Summary: USD/CHF traded at 0.7981, steady after last week’s SNB commentary and soft US inflation. The Franc remains firm amid geopolitical tensions and cautious global sentiment.
Outlook: USD/CHF may drift lower if Fed signals further easing. Swiss trade data and SNB guidance will be closely watched.
Final Summary
Sterling rallied on strong GDP and production figures, while the Euro remains pressured by political instability in France and dovish ECB signals. The US Dollar trades cautiously ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision, with inflation and retail sales in focus. Commodity currencies gained on upbeat Chinese data and firmer oil prices. The Swiss Franc held steady, supported by safe-haven flows amid global uncertainty.