Daily Market Update: 14 October 2025
Key Currency Pair Movements
GBP/EUR
- Summary: The GBP/EUR pair trades cautiously in the European session, remaining weak following its recent decline.
- Outlook: The pair lacks clear direction ahead of the Eurozone economic calendar, which features the influential German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey. The Pound Sterling (GBP) remains under modest pressure, and its next major catalyst will be the UK’s labour market data on Wednesday.
GBP/USD
- Summary: Pound Sterling (GBP) struggles to maintain its footing, trading under modest bearish pressure against a rebounding US Dollar (USD).
- Outlook: The US Dollar’s rebound, fuelled by investors reassessing the US-China trade conflict, is weighing on the pair. The overall souring risk mood due to renewed trade tensions keeps the pair vulnerable as markets await Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s speech later in the day.
EUR/USD
- Summary: The pair consolidates around 1.1550 in the European morning, with volatility expected from key Eurozone data.
- Outlook: The immediate focus for the Euro (EUR) is the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for October, which is forecast to show an improvement in expectations. Technically, a bearish bias prevails, with the pair pressing toward a two-month low. The general cautious market sentiment ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s speech also limits any potential upside.
AUD/USD
- Summary: The Australian Dollar is trading under pressure following renewed fears of an escalating US-China trade conflict.
- Outlook: As a risk-sensitive currency, the AUD is pressured by the souring risk mood. China’s Commerce Ministry has stated that the US needs to correct its ‘wrong practices’ and warned that they cannot have trade talks under threat of new restrictions, adding tension to the pair’s outlook.
USD/CAD
- Summary: The USD/CAD pair holds steady near recent highs around 1.4000 in the cautious risk environment.
- Outlook: The US Dollar’s renewed strength and the general risk-off sentiment provide support for the pair. The Canadian Dollar’s upside is likely to be capped by the broader market concerns over US-China trade tensions and the focus on US data/policy.
USD/CHF
- Summary: The pair holds steady above 0.8000, with its movement influenced by the safe-haven flows of the Swiss Franc (CHF) and the strength of the US Dollar.
- Outlook: Renewed trade tensions between the US and China, which are escalating with new port fees, could boost safe-haven flows, benefiting the CHF and potentially capping the upside for the USD/CHF. Traders will focus on the Swiss Producer and Import Prices data for September, as well as Fed Chair Powell’s speech. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to cut borrowing costs to -0.25% at the December meeting if the Franc remains strong, due to the negative impact of high US tariffs on growth.
Final Summary
Markets quiet down early Tuesday following Monday’s volatile action, with focus shifting to Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy at the National Associations for Business Economics (NABE) Annual Meeting in Philadelphia. The US Dollar (USD) staged a rebound on Monday as investors reassessed the US-China trade conflict after US President Donald Trump’s tariff threat.
However, the risk mood is souring, reflected in US stock index futures losing between 0.5% and 1%, after China’s Commerce Ministry warned the US against threatening new restrictions. The US and China will today begin charging additional port fees on ocean shipping companies, turning the high seas into a critical battlefield in the world’s two biggest economies’ trade war.
The ongoing US government shutdown is entering its third week with no resolution in sight. The Senate returns today and is expected to vote again on a House-passed measure to fund the government.
Written by: Ian Morley