01/10/2025
Written by: Ian Morley
Daily Currency Market Update – 14th July 2025
GBP/EUR
Summary: GBP/EUR slipped below 1.1550 after Friday’s UK GDP data confirmed a second consecutive monthly contraction. Industrial and manufacturing output also disappointed, fuelling expectations of a Bank of England rate cut in August. Meanwhile, the Euro remains supported by hawkish ECB rhetoric and a widening trade surplus in Germany, despite looming US tariff threats.
Outlook: With Eurozone PPI data due today and retaliatory tariff measures under discussion, GBP/EUR may remain under pressure if UK fiscal concerns persist and ECB officials maintain a steady tone.
GBP/USD
Summary: GBP/USD trades near 1.3450, its lowest level since late June, as risk aversion intensifies. The Pound continues to weaken amid UK fiscal concerns and soft economic data, while the US Dollar is buoyed by safe-haven demand following Trump’s announcement of 30% tariffs on EU and Mexican imports.
Outlook: Focus is now on Tuesday’s US CPI and Wednesday’s UK CPI releases. If inflation proves sticky and trade tensions escalate, GBP/USD could face further downside.
EUR/USD
Summary: EUR/USD hovers near 1.1650, weighed down by US–EU trade tensions and cautious sentiment ahead of key inflation data. The Euro remains vulnerable despite upbeat German trade figures, as investors brace for potential retaliatory measures from Brussels.
Outlook: Eurozone inflation and US CPI will be pivotal. If the EU secures tariff exemptions or inflation surprises to the upside, EUR/USD could stabilise. Otherwise, downside risks persist.
USD/AUD
Summary: AUD/USD trades around 0.6560, down 0.3% on the day, as trade war concerns and weaker Chinese trade data weigh on sentiment. Despite a stronger-than-expected Chinese surplus in USD terms, the Aussie remains pressured by global uncertainty and cautious Fed commentary.
Outlook: The RBA’s August rate decision and China’s economic trajectory will be key. If risk aversion deepens, AUD/USD may struggle to hold current levels.
USD/CAD
Summary: USD/CAD holds steady near 1.3700, with safe-haven flows into the Dollar offset by rising oil prices and strong Canadian employment data. Trump’s proposed 35% tariffs on Canadian imports have yet to impact the pair meaningfully, as markets await further clarity.
Outlook: Tuesday’s CPI releases from both countries will be crucial. If Canadian inflation holds firm and oil prices remain elevated, USD/CAD could drift lower.
USD/CHF
Summary: USD/CHF trades around 0.7970, subdued for a second session as the Swiss Franc benefits from safe-haven demand and fading expectations of further SNB easing. Swiss Producer and Import Prices data due today may offer fresh direction.
Outlook: If Swiss inflation remains stable and global trade tensions escalate, USD/CHF could test fresh multi-year lows.
Final Summary
Markets opened the week cautiously as Trump’s sweeping tariff threats reignited global trade fears. Sterling softened on poor UK data and fiscal concerns, while the Euro struggled ahead of US–EU trade talks. The Dollar remains supported by safe-haven flows, pressuring risk-sensitive currencies like the Aussie and Loonie. Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc continues to attract defensive demand. Focus now turns to CPI figures and central bank commentary for the next decisive catalyst.