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Market Insight 13-10-2025

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  • Market Insight 13-10-2025

Daily Market Update: 13 October 2025

Key Currency Pair Movements

GBP/EUR

  • Summary: The GBP/EUR pair remains negative, trading below 1.1490 in the European session.
  • Outlook: Pound Sterling (GBP) weakens against the Euro (EUR) amid concerns over potential tax increases in the upcoming Autumn Budget, scheduled for late November. Analysts expect the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, to raise taxes again to meet her fiscal targets. This potential tax increase could affect UK economic growth and dampen household sentiment. Traders are bracing for the UK labour market data for September, which will be released on Tuesday and provide fresh impetus. Meanwhile, the Euro is being supported as French President Emmanuel Macron re-appointed Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu, who is now expected to present the 2026 budget ahead of the Tuesday deadline.

GBP/USD

  • Summary: The pair stays under modest bearish pressure, trading slightly below 1.3350 early Monday.
  • Outlook: Pound Sterling remains under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) clings to recovery gains following a sell-off last week. The pair’s movement will be dominated by the broader risk sentiment and the US Dollar’s reaction to renewed US-China trade tensions. Attention shifts to the UK’s Office for National Statistics, which will publish labour market data for September on Tuesday.

EUR/USD

  • Summary: The pair struggles to build on Friday’s gains and holds steady around 1.1600 in the European session.
  • Outlook: The Euro is receiving some support from the resolution of the French political drama, with President Macron re-appointing Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu to present the 2026 budget. However, the pair’s upside remains capped by the overall cautious market mood triggered by the US President’s tariff threats against China.

USD/CHF

  • Summary: The US Dollar is hesitating right above the 0.8000 line against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Monday.
  • Outlook: Investors are wary that the trade rift between the US and China might escalate into a full-blown trade war, which keeps the pair looking for direction following a nearly 1% sell-off on Friday. Although the broader trend remains positive for the pair, concerns about further trade uncertainty, added to an extended US Government shutdown, might dent the US Dollar’s recovery. The focus in Switzerland this week will be on September Producer and Import Prices, which are expected to bounce up, a scenario the Swiss National Bank (SNB) needs to ease concerns about deflationary pressures.

Final Summary

Markets adopt a cautious stance to begin the week after United States (US) President Donald Trump announced late Friday that the US will impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports. The President stated that this move is in response to China taking an “extraordinarily aggressive position” on trade. The US Dollar (USD) came under heavy selling pressure toward the end of last week and snapped a four-day winning streak.