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Market Insight 13-02-2026

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  • Market Insight 13-02-2026

Daily Currency Market Update – Friday, 13 February 2026

Market Overview

The US Dollar stages a modest rebound ahead of today’s US CPI release, supported by reports that President Trump may roll back some steel and aluminium tariffs. The USD Index trades back above 97.00, though gains remain limited as markets await inflation data expected to show headline CPI easing to 2.5% from 2.7%.

Eurozone GDP is the first major release of the day, with expectations for 0.3% QoQ and 1.3% YoY growth in Q4.

Sterling is steady against the Dollar and flat against the Euro, with UK GDP confirming a sluggish end to 2025. BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks later today. AUD/USD holds firm, supported by rising Australian inflation expectations, while USD/CAD and USD/CHF edge higher as the Dollar finds a mild bid in risk‑off markets.

GBP/EUR

GBP/EUR ~1.1480

The cross remains flat as soft UK GDP is offset by a cautious but steady Eurozone backdrop.

Drivers

  • UK Q4 GDP grew 0.1% QoQ, below the expected 0.2%.
  • Annual growth slowed to 1.0%, signalling a loss of momentum.
  • BoE Deputy Governor Breeden said a rate cut could come “in the next couple of meetings.”
  • Eurozone GDP expected at 0.3% QoQ and 1.3% YoY.
  • ECB expected to hold rates at 2.0% through 2026; policymakers maintain a steady tone.

Outlook: GBP/EUR likely to remain range‑bound until Eurozone GDP is released.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD ~1.3600

Sterling consolidates as traders await US CPI for fresh direction.

Drivers

  • GBP/USD holds above 1.3600 but lacks momentum.
  • Markets price at least two Fed cuts in 2026, keeping USD gains limited.
  • Concerns over Fed independence continue to weigh on the Dollar.
  • UK political jitters have eased slightly after Starmer secured cabinet backing.
  • BoE easing expectations remain elevated after weak UK GDP.

Outlook: CPI will determine whether GBP/USD can retest 1.3660 or slip back toward 1.3500.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD ~1.1855

The Euro drifts lower ahead of Eurozone GDP and US CPI.

Drivers

  • EUR/USD extends its decline from weekly highs at 1.1928.
  • Risk‑off sentiment weighs on EUR as AI‑related labour market fears hit equities.
  • USD supported by safe‑haven flows despite soft macro data.
  • Eurozone GDP expected to show steady but slowing growth.
  • US CPI expected to ease to 2.5% YoY.

Outlook: EUR/USD direction hinges on the combination of Eurozone GDP and US CPI.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD ~0.7140

The Australian Dollar holds near recent highs as inflation expectations rise.

Drivers

  • Australian inflation expectations rose to 5.0%, highest in nearly three years.
  • RBA officials maintain a hawkish tone; further hikes remain possible.
  • AUD supported by resilient domestic data and cautious optimism around global risk.
  • US CPI remains the key risk event for AUD/USD today.

Outlook: AUD/USD remains constructive above 0.7100; a soft US CPI could extend gains.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD ~1.3615

The pair edges higher as stronger US jobs data tempers Fed cut expectations.

Drivers

  • NFP beat (130K vs 70K expected) reduces near‑term Fed cut odds.
  • Oil prices soften on expectations of slower global demand in 2026.
  • Fed’s Miran said policy is “tighter than he thought,” hinting at room for cuts later.
  • Markets price a 60% chance of a June Fed cut.

Outlook: USD/CAD remains sensitive to US CPI; a hot print could push the pair toward 1.3650.

USD/CHF

USD/CHF ~0.7714

The Dollar edges higher after Swiss CPI surprises to the downside.

Drivers

  • Swiss CPI fell 0.1% MoM, below expectations.
  • Annual inflation held at 0.1%, reinforcing expectations of SNB easing.
  • CHF weakened slightly on the data but remains supported by safe‑haven flows.
  • USD gains modestly in risk‑off markets ahead of CPI.

Outlook: USD/CHF remains capped by safe‑haven demand; CPI will dictate whether the pair can break higher.

Final Summary

The US Dollar finds modest support ahead of today’s CPI release, while markets brace for Eurozone GDP as the first major data point of the day. Sterling remains steady despite weak UK GDP, with BoE easing expectations firmly in place. The Euro trades lower as sentiment sours, while the Australian Dollar holds near multi‑year highs on rising inflation expectations. CAD and CHF remain driven by oil prices, safe‑haven flows, and shifting Fed expectations. Today’s Eurozone GDP and US CPI releases will set the tone for FX markets into the weekend.