28/10/2025
Written by: Ian Morley
Daily Currency Market Update – 12th September 2025
GBP/EUR
Summary: GBP/EUR trades near 1.1540 after the ECB held rates at 2.00% and signalled a pause in its tightening cycle. President Lagarde noted that inflation is “coming down” and that current levels are “sufficiently restrictive,” prompting markets to price in a 60% chance of a rate cut by December. Sterling remains steady ahead of UK GDP and Industrial Production data due Friday.
Outlook: Euro may remain under pressure if ECB commentary continues to lean dovish. GBP could gain if UK data surprises to the upside and fiscal concerns ease.
GBP/USD
Summary: GBP/USD holds firm around 1.3530, supported by softer US inflation and resilient UK consumer spending. US Core CPI slowed to 0.2% m/m and 2.7% y/y, reinforcing expectations for a Fed rate cut next week. Sterling sentiment remains stable ahead of key domestic data.
Outlook: GBP/USD may extend gains if UK GDP beats expectations. Fed rate cut pricing and BoE commentary will guide near-term direction.
EUR/USD
Summary: EUR/USD dips to 1.1690 following the ECB’s dovish hold. Lagarde’s remarks on inflation moderation and restrictive policy weighed on the Euro, while US CPI came in softer than expected.
Outlook: Euro may remain subdued unless Eurozone data improves or ECB rhetoric shifts. US retail sales and UK macro data will influence broader USD moves.
AUD/USD
Summary: AUD/USD trades near 0.6580, steady after a muted reaction to US CPI. The Aussie remains supported by strong domestic data and fading RBA rate cut expectations, though Westpac Consumer Confidence fell 3.1% in September.
Outlook: AUD may gain if US Dollar weakens further. Chinese trade data and RBA commentary will be key for direction.
USD/CAD
Summary: USD/CAD consolidates around 1.3860, with the Loonie steady despite soft Canadian employment data. Oil prices remain rangebound, offering little support, while traders await US retail sales and Canadian housing data.
Outlook: CAD may strengthen if domestic data improves. US economic signals and BoC commentary will guide movement.
USD/CHF
Summary: USD/CHF trades near 0.7990, recovering slightly after recent losses. The Dollar is supported by Fed rate cut expectations, while the Franc remains firm following SNB President Schlegel’s cautious remarks on inflation.
Outlook: USD/CHF may remain rangebound unless US retail data surprises. Swiss inflation and SNB guidance will shape medium-term sentiment.
Final Summary
Sterling trades steadily ahead of key UK data, while the Euro softens following the ECB’s dovish hold. The US Dollar remains under pressure after softer inflation, with markets pricing in a Fed rate cut next week. Commodity currencies are mixed, with AUD supported by domestic resilience and CAD steady amid subdued oil prices. The Swiss Franc holds firm on cautious SNB commentary. Attention now turns to UK GDP, US retail sales, and broader central bank guidance.