Market Insight 12-06-2024

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  • Market Insight 12-06-2024


The EUR experienced significant volatility yesterday due to speculation that French President Emmanuel Macron was poised to resign ahead of the French elections. These rumours were promptly denied. Nonetheless, this incident reiterates our previous assertion that the EUR, bearing a political risk premium, remains vulnerable to sudden declines on adverse data or news reports.

The GBP saw slight gains across the board, despite morning data indicating a cooling UK job market.


  • None today.

Market Insight:

UK GDP for April stagnated at 0%, down from 0.4% in March, indicating a slowdown in economic growth. The market’s response has been muted so far, and the data is expected to have minimal impact on the Bank of England’s interest rate policy.

Today, attention is focused on USD movements with the release of the CPI report and the Fed Dot Plot this evening. Strong job numbers on Friday led to USD buying across our client base, hedging against potential further USD gains. A higher-than-expected CPI reading and a hawkish Fed Dot Plot are likely to drive further USD gains as the market scales back expectations of a rate cut this year.