14/11/2025
Written by: Ian Morley
Daily Currency Market Update – 11th November 2025
GBP/EUR
Summary: GBP/EUR fell to 1.1350 as Sterling weakened following disappointing UK labour market data. The ILO Unemployment Rate rose to 5.0% in the three months to September, while Employment Change printed at -22K. Wage growth also slowed, reinforcing expectations of a BoE rate cut in December. Meanwhile, the Euro held firm on cautious ECB commentary, with policymakers signalling no urgency to adjust rates.
Outlook: GBP/EUR may remain pressured unless UK GDP surprises to the upside. ECB tone and German sentiment data will guide direction.
GBP/USD
Summary: GBP/USD declined to 1.3130 after four days of gains, as Sterling came under pressure from soft employment data. The Dollar remained stable ahead of the House vote on the US funding bill, with Fed rate cut expectations holding near 62%.
Outlook: GBP/USD may remain rangebound ahead of UK GDP and US inflation data. Fed commentary and political developments will shape momentum.
EUR/USD
Summary: EUR/USD held near 1.1550, trading sideways as US shutdown resolution lifted sentiment. The Euro was supported by ECB policy stability, while the Dollar gained marginally on improved risk tone.
Outlook: Euro may consolidate unless German ZEW sentiment disappoints. ECB speeches and US employment data will be pivotal.
AUD/USD
Summary: AUD/USD dipped despite a sharp rebound in Westpac Consumer Confidence and cautious RBA commentary. The pair was weighed by stronger USD and mixed Chinese trade data, though easing US-China tensions provided some support.
Outlook: AUD may stabilise if Chinese macro signals improve. RBA tone and trade sentiment will guide direction.
USD/CAD
Summary: USD/CAD rose to 1.4035, supported by Dollar strength and US shutdown optimism. Canadian employment data remained upbeat, with unemployment falling to 6.9% and job gains surprising to the upside.
Outlook: CAD may gain if BoC signals a pause. Oil prices and US data resumption will influence direction.
USD/CHF
Summary: USD/CHF edged down to 0.8045 as CHF outperformed on trade optimism. Reports suggest a US-Swiss trade deal may be announced within two weeks, while SNB remains confident in inflation resilience.
Outlook: USD/CHF may remain soft unless Fed signals hawkish intent. SNB tone and trade developments will shape CHF sentiment.
Final Summary
Sterling weakened on soft labour data, reinforcing BoE rate cut expectations. The Euro held firm on cautious ECB signals, while the US Dollar stabilised as shutdown resolution neared. The Australian Dollar dipped despite strong consumer sentiment, and the Canadian Dollar remained supported by robust employment and firmer oil. The Swiss Franc gained on trade optimism and SNB policy stability.