Summary:
The market focus today is centred on the release of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which will be critical in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision. The EUR/USD pair is trading near 1.1050, supported by the weakened US Dollar, which has been struggling due to falling Treasury yields. Despite moderate gains, the pair’s upside may be capped by dovish European Central Bank (ECB) expectations, with traders pricing in a potential 25 basis point rate cut at tomorrow’s ECB meeting.
In the UK, the GBP/USD pair is hovering around 1.3100 following weaker-than-expected UK macroeconomic data. The UK economy showed no growth in July, with both industrial and manufacturing production falling unexpectedly. Despite this, the Pound has found support from a softer US Dollar, although traders remain cautious ahead of the US inflation report.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains stable amid improved risk sentiment, supported by remarks from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and broader market developments. AUD/USD is holding steady as traders await the US CPI report, which could provide fresh clues on the Fed’s rate trajectory.
Outlook:
- EUR/USD: The pair is likely to remain sensitive to the upcoming US CPI release, which will influence Fed rate cut expectations. While the weaker US Dollar provides support, dovish ECB expectations and concerns over Eurozone economic growth may limit significant gains. The pair could face resistance around 1.1050, with any dovish surprise in the ECB meeting tomorrow potentially driving the Euro lower.
- GBP/USD: The British Pound remains under pressure due to weak domestic data, with the pair struggling to sustain momentum above 1.3100. The upcoming US CPI data is likely to drive short-term direction, with a higher-than-expected inflation reading potentially leading to renewed US Dollar strength, weighing on the pair. However, any signs of a dovish Fed could provide some relief for the Pound.
- GBPEUR: The pair is trading just below recent highs, with the Euro facing downward pressure from ECB rate cut expectations and weaker German inflation data. GBP could hold its ground, particularly if UK data stabilises or if the ECB signals further dovishness at its meeting tomorrow.
- AUD/USD: The Australian Dollar’s stability will largely depend on broader market sentiment and the outcome of the US CPI report. With RBA officials maintaining a hawkish stance, the AUD could benefit if US inflation softens, lowering the chances of a more aggressive Fed rate cut.
- GBPAUD: This pair continues to fluctuate as the Pound contends with disappointing UK data and the Australian Dollar stabilises amid an improved risk environment. Any surprising moves in US CPI could prompt volatility, especially as the AUD remains sensitive to global economic developments.
Written by: Ian Morley