01/10/2025
Written by: Ian Morley
Daily Currency Market Update – 11th June 2025
GBP/EUR
Summary: GBP/EUR continues to trade near 1.1800, marking a one-month low as traders position ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. Pound Sterling remains under pressure following Tuesday’s disappointing UK jobs report, which reinforced expectations of Bank of England rate cuts later this year. Meanwhile, the Euro remains supported by the European Central Bank’s (ECB) recent signals that its easing cycle may be nearing an end.
Outlook: The markets will closely watch the US CPI report for potential market volatility. If inflation surprises to the upside, the Euro could weaken against the Dollar, potentially supporting GBP/EUR.
GBP/USD
Summary: GBP/USD extends its downside below 1.3500, trading near 1.3475 in the Asian session. The Pound remains under pressure following weaker UK employment data, while the US Dollar finds support from easing trade tensions between the US and China. Reports indicate that both nations have agreed on a framework to implement the Geneva Consensus, improving market sentiment.
Outlook: The US CPI release later today will be key for GBP/USD direction. If inflation prints higher than expected, the Dollar could strengthen further, pressuring Sterling.
EUR/USD
Summary: EUR/USD holds losses near 1.1400 as easing US-China tariff tensions support the Dollar. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed that both nations have reached a framework agreement, reducing trade uncertainty. Meanwhile, ECB policymakers continue to signal a cautious approach to further rate cuts, keeping the Euro stable.
Outlook: The US CPI report will be the primary driver for EUR/USD today. If inflation data reinforces expectations of Fed rate cuts, the Euro may regain some ground.
USD/AUD
Summary: AUD/USD struggles to maintain gains above 0.6500 despite easing US-China trade tensions. The Australian Dollar remains under pressure following weaker Chinese inflation data, which showed a 0.1% annual decline in May. Meanwhile, Australia’s Trade Balance posted a lower-than-expected surplus, further weighing on sentiment.
Outlook: The Australian Dollar’s movement will depend on US inflation figures and upcoming domestic economic releases.
USD/CAD
Summary: USD/CAD trades above 1.3650 as easing US-China tensions offset the impact of higher oil prices. Crude oil surged past $66 per barrel before retreating to $64, limiting the Canadian Dollar’s upside. Meanwhile, the market awaits the US CPI report for further direction.
Outlook: If US inflation surprises to the upside, the Dollar could strengthen, keeping USD/CAD elevated.
USD/CHF
Summary: USD/CHF consolidates below 0.8250 as traders adopt a cautious stance ahead of the US CPI release. The pair remains confined in a narrow range, with safe-haven flows into the Swiss Franc limiting Dollar gains.
Outlook: A stronger-than-expected US inflation print could push USD/CHF higher, while weaker data may reinforce safe-haven demand for CHF.
Final Summary
Markets remain cautious ahead of the US CPI release, which will shape expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Pound Sterling struggles following weak UK employment data, while the Euro remains stable amid ECB signals of a pause in rate cuts. The US Dollar finds support from easing trade tensions, while commodity-linked currencies like the Australian and Canadian Dollars react to economic indicators and oil price trends. The market will closely watch inflation data for fresh market direction.