26/07/2024
Written by: Ian Morley
Summary:
The US dollar weakened broadly following Friday’s jobs report, which revealed a cooling labour market. While nonfarm payroll numbers showed an increase of 275,000 jobs in February, lower-than-expected hourly earnings and a higher unemployment rate unsettled markets, leading GBPUSD to reach highs last seen in July 2023. EURUSD also surged, nearing its 2024 highs. With fewer expected rate cuts in the UK compared to the EU and US, GBP remained in demand, with GBPEUR approaching last year’s highs.
Speeches:
Market Insight:
With GBPUSD breaching key resistance levels last week and closing above them, there’s a possibility that the market sentiment may continue favouring the selling of USD. Therefore, Tuesday’s US inflation data gains increased importance to assess whether GBPUSD can reach its July 2023 highs. A decrease in US CPI could prompt further USD selling. Before that, the release of UK jobs data on Tuesday morning, particularly wage growth figures, will be closely watched.
Wednesday’s focus shifts to the release of January GDP data to determine if the UK has exited recession, while Thursday brings attention back to the US with the release of retail sales and producer price inflation figures.
Analysis:
GBP surged to its highest levels since July last year, driven by rate differentials and a rebound from recession, favouring the currency. This week’s focus remains on GBP, with attention on tomorrow’s job numbers and January’s GDP print to assess whether GBP can maintain its upward trajectory.