Market Insight 11-02-2026

• Written by: Ian Morley
• 11/02/2026

Daily Currency Market Update – Wednesday, 11 February 2026

Market Overview

The US Dollar remains under pressure ahead of today’s delayed January Nonfarm Payrolls report, with markets expecting a modest 70K jobs gain and the unemployment rate to hold at 4.4%. The USD Index continues to drift lower toward 96.50, weighed down by soft US data and falling Treasury yields — the 10‑year dipped below 4.15%, its lowest level since mid‑January.

US Retail Sales were flat in December, missing expectations for a 0.4% rise, adding to concerns about slowing consumption. Risk sentiment remains fragile, with US equities falling more than 1% on Tuesday and futures pointing lower again this morning.

GBP/EUR

GBP/EUR ~1.1480

The cross weakens as UK political turmoil intensifies and Eurozone sentiment improves.

Drivers

• Pressure mounts on PM Starmer to resign following renewed controversy around Ambassador Peter Mandelson.
• UK political instability keeps GBP among the weakest G10 currencies this week.
• Euro supported by hawkish ECB tone and improving sentiment indicators.
• Eurozone Sentix Index rose to 4.2, the first positive reading since July.
• ECB officials continue to downplay recent EUR strength and see no urgency to adjust policy.

Outlook: GBP/EUR remains vulnerable; UK GDP tomorrow will be the next major catalyst.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD ~1.3670

Sterling rebounds after Tuesday’s decline but remains capped by UK political uncertainty.

Drivers

• GBP/USD pulled back from 1.3700 on Tuesday, forming a lower‑high pattern.
• BoE’s dovish 5–4 vote split continues to weigh on GBP sentiment.
• UK political crisis limits upside despite USD weakness.
• Markets await today’s US NFP and tonight’s UK GDP release.
• A soft NFP print could push GBP/USD back toward 1.3700–1.3727 resistance; a strong print risks a move toward 1.3510 support.

Outlook: High‑volatility session expected with NFP and UK GDP both due within hours.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD ~1.1910

The Euro holds firm ahead of US NFP, supported by soft US data and improving Eurozone sentiment.

Drivers

• EUR/USD trades more than 1% above last week’s lows.
• US Retail Sales stagnated in December, adding pressure on USD.
• US Employment Cost Index slowed to 0.7%, the weakest since 2021.
• ECB speakers maintain confidence that inflation will stabilise around 2%.
• Schnabel and other ECB officials due to speak later today.

Outlook: EUR/USD remains supported while USD stays defensive; NFP will determine whether the pair can extend gains.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD ~0.7090

The Australian Dollar holds gains as China CPI rises and RBA maintains a hawkish stance.

Drivers

• China CPI rose 0.2% YoY, supporting AUD sentiment.
• RBA Deputy Governor Hauser reiterated that inflation is “too high” and policy must remain tight.
• Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence fell to 90.5, a 10‑month low.
• NAB Business Confidence improved to 3, the highest since October.
• AUD supported by easing geopolitical tensions after constructive US–Iran comments.

Outlook: AUD/USD remains constructive above 0.7050; US NFP will dictate near‑term direction.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD ~1.3505–1.3520

The pair extends its decline as USD weakness and firmer oil prices support CAD.

Drivers

• USD/CAD trades near a two‑week low as the USD softens ahead of NFP.
• Oil prices remain firm, supporting the commodity‑linked CAD.
• Weak US Retail Sales and labour data reinforce expectations of Fed easing.
• Markets price 2–3 Fed cuts this year, starting in June.
• BoC maintains a neutral stance amid elevated uncertainty.

Outlook: A break below 1.3500 would open the door to further downside; NFP will be decisive.

USD/CHF

USD/CHF ~0.7660

The Dollar weakens as markets await US jobs data and safe‑haven demand supports CHF.

Drivers

• USD/CHF declines for a second session as USD softens.
• Markets expect NFP to show 70K job gains.
• US Retail Sales stagnation adds to USD pressure.
• CHF supported by risk‑off sentiment and concerns around AI‑driven market volatility.
• SNB expected to keep rates at 0%; inflation remains subdued.

Outlook: USD/CHF likely to remain under pressure unless NFP significantly beats expectations.

Final Summary

The US Dollar remains on the defensive ahead of today’s delayed NFP report, with soft US data and falling yields reinforcing expectations of Fed easing later this year. Sterling is weighed down by UK political turmoil but has stabilised ahead of key UK GDP data. The Euro benefits from improving sentiment and a steady ECB stance, while the Australian Dollar strengthens on hawkish RBA commentary and firmer Chinese data. CAD gains on higher oil prices and USD weakness, and CHF remains supported by safe‑haven flows. Today’s NFP release will be the key driver for FX markets, setting the tone for the remainder of the week.