14/11/2025
Written by: Ian Morley
Daily Currency Market Update – 10th November 2025
GBP/EUR
Summary: GBP/EUR remains below 1.1400 as policy divergence limits upside. The Euro is supported by cautious ECB commentary, with Vice President de Guindos noting no need for rate adjustments unless inflation dynamics shift. Meanwhile, Sterling faces pressure amid rising expectations of a BoE rate cut in December, following Governor Bailey’s dovish tone.
Outlook: GBP/EUR may soften further if UK labour data disappoints. ECB speakers and UK budget speculation will guide direction.
GBP/USD
Summary: GBP/USD trades near 1.3175, supported by improved risk sentiment and progress on the US government funding bill. Sterling gains marginally as the Dollar eases, though BoE rate cut expectations continue to weigh.
Outlook: GBP/USD may remain rangebound ahead of UK employment and GDP data. US political developments and Fed commentary will shape momentum.
EUR/USD
Summary: EUR/USD holds steady near 1.1550 after a modest weekly gain. The Euro remains supported by ECB policy stability, while the Dollar steadies as optimism grows around the US shutdown resolution.
Outlook: Euro may gain if Sentix confidence improves. Diverging central bank outlooks and US sentiment data will be pivotal.
AUD/USD
Summary: AUD/USD advances toward 0.6500, supported by RBA caution and easing US-China trade tensions. Deputy Governor Hauser stressed the need for tight conditions to curb inflation, while China temporarily lifted export bans on key materials.
Outlook: AUD may remain firm if trade sentiment improves. RBA tone and Chinese macro data will guide direction.
USD/CAD
Summary: USD/CAD falls to 1.4010 as the Loonie strengthens on upbeat Canadian labour data and firmer oil prices. Canada’s unemployment rate dropped to 6.9% in October, while WTI crude rose above $60.
Outlook: CAD may extend gains if BoC signals a pause. Oil trends and US shutdown resolution will influence direction.
USD/CHF
Summary: USD/CHF consolidates around 0.8060 as the Dollar steadies and SNB signals inflation resilience. Chairman Schlegel reiterated that rates are expected to remain on hold, supporting CHF stability.
Outlook: USD/CHF may remain rangebound unless Fed tone shifts. SNB commentary and US data resumption will shape CHF sentiment.
Final Summary
Sterling trades cautiously ahead of key UK data, while the Euro holds firm on ECB stability. The US Dollar steadies as shutdown resolution nears, with consumer sentiment in focus. The Australian Dollar gains on trade optimism and RBA caution, while the Canadian Dollar strengthens on labour data and oil. The Swiss Franc remains stable amid SNB confidence in inflation outlook.