28/10/2025
Written by: Ian Morley
Daily Currency Market Update – 9th September 2025
GBP/EUR
Summary: GBP/EUR climbs to 1.1540 following stronger-than-expected BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales, which rose 2.9% YoY in August. The Pound finds support from resilient consumer demand, though retailers remain cautious ahead of the November budget. The Euro holds firm ahead of Thursday’s ECB decision, with expectations for rates to remain unchanged.
Outlook: GBP/EUR may remain supported if UK data continues to surprise positively. Euro sentiment will hinge on ECB guidance and political developments in France following Bayrou’s defeat in the confidence vote.
GBP/USD
Summary: GBP/USD strengthens to 1.3560 as the Dollar weakens ahead of today’s NFP Benchmark Revision. Traders anticipate a downward revision of up to 800K jobs, which could reinforce Fed rate cut expectations. HSBC and Deutsche Bank have pushed back their BoE rate cut forecasts, supporting Sterling.
Outlook: GBP/USD may extend gains if the benchmark revision confirms labour market deterioration. BoE commentary and US CPI data later this week will be key for direction.
EUR/USD
Summary: EUR/USD trades near 1.1760, supported by broad USD weakness and expectations of a sharp downward revision to US employment data. Political uncertainty in France limits Euro upside, with Macron expected to appoint a new PM following Bayrou’s defeat.
Outlook: Euro may remain rangebound until Thursday’s ECB decision. US CPI and benchmark revisions will guide short-term USD sentiment.
AUD/USD
Summary: AUD/USD holds firm around 0.6600, extending its three-day rally. The Aussie is supported by easing RBA rate cut bets and last week’s strong trade and GDP data. Westpac Consumer Confidence fell 3.1% in September, reflecting renewed economic concerns.
Outlook: AUD may remain supported if US Dollar weakness persists. RBA expectations and Chinese trade data will influence direction.
USD/CAD
Summary: USD/CAD trades above 1.3800, lacking bullish momentum amid mixed drivers. The pair is supported by BoC rate cut expectations following Friday’s weak Canadian jobs data, but capped by firmer oil prices and broad USD softness.
Outlook: USD/CAD may remain rangebound until US inflation data and BoC commentary provide fresh impetus. Canadian trade and employment trends will be closely watched.
USD/CHF
Summary: USD/CHF slips to 0.7920, approaching two-month lows. The Dollar remains under pressure ahead of the NFP Benchmark Revision, with markets pricing in a possible 50bps Fed cut. The pair eyes key support at 0.7910, with SNB President Schlegel due to speak Wednesday.
Outlook: USD/CHF may weaken further if US employment revisions disappoint. Swiss commentary and US CPI will shape direction later in the week.
Final Summary
Sterling gains on strong retail data and delayed BoE easing expectations, while the Euro holds firm despite French political uncertainty. The US Dollar remains under pressure ahead of today’s NFP Benchmark Revision, with markets increasingly pricing in aggressive Fed cuts. Commodity currencies like AUD and CAD are steady, supported by domestic resilience and softer USD. The Swiss Franc strengthens as USD/CHF nears key support, with attention turning to SNB and US inflation data.