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Market Insight 09-01-2026

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  • Market Insight 09-01-2026

Daily Currency Market Update – 9 January 2026

Market Overview

The US Dollar extended its weekly advance ahead of today’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment releases. The USD Index trades near 99.00, up more than 0.5% for the week, supported by a sharply narrower US trade deficit and stronger‑than‑expected jobless claims data.

Markets remain cautious as investors await the first full NFP report unaffected by the government shutdown. Consensus expects +60k jobs, unemployment dipping to 4.5%, and wage growth accelerating to 3.6% y/y.

China’s CPI rose to 0.8% y/y, slightly below expectations, weighing on risk sentiment and commodity currencies.

GBP/EUR

GBP/EUR holds above 1.1500, around the mid-range for the week.

Key drivers:

  • Mixed German data:
    • Industrial Production rose 0.8% m/m, beating expectations.
    • Trade surplus narrowed sharply to €13.1bn, with exports down 2.5%, raising concerns over Eurozone growth.
  • Eurozone retail sales expected to show a modest 0.1% m/m rise.
  • UK data remains light; Sterling stays defensive after a downward revision to the UK Services PMI earlier in the week.

Outlook: GBP/EUR likely to remain range‑bound ahead of Eurozone retail sales and ECB commentary.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD trades near 1.3420, marking a fourth consecutive daily decline.

Drivers:

  • USD strength ahead of NFP, with the DXY at a four‑week high near 99.00.
  • Markets expect +60k jobs, with the impact of strong data likely limited unless it signals a sustained labour rebound.
  • UK labour market data for the three months to November becomes the next major domestic catalyst.
  • Markets also await President Trump’s imminent announcement of the next Fed Chair, with several candidates reportedly under consideration.

Outlook: GBP/USD remains vulnerable until NFP is released. A softer US labour print could trigger a corrective rebound.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD trades near 1.1640, its lowest level in a month, down 0.6% on the week.

Key factors:

  • Eurozone retail sales beat expectations (+0.2% m/m, +2.3% y/y), but the Euro failed to benefit.
  • German data mixed: stronger industrial output but weaker trade balance.
  • Markets await the US Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariff authority, which could have significant implications for US trade policy.

Outlook: EUR/USD remains pressured ahead of NFP. Eurozone data likely to have limited impact today.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD trades below 0.6700, declining for a third straight session.

Drivers:

  • China’s CPI rose 0.8% y/y, missing expectations and weighing on the Aussie.
  • Australia’s trade surplus narrowed sharply to 2.94bn, with exports down 2.9% m/m.
  • Mixed Australian CPI keeps RBA policy uncertain; focus shifts to Q4 CPI later this month.
  • USD strength ahead of NFP adds downside pressure.

Outlook: AUD/USD remains sensitive to China data and US labour market outcomes.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD trades near 1.3870, extending its winning streak to a fifth session.

Key drivers:

  • CAD pressured by falling oil prices amid expectations of increased Venezuelan crude supply to the US.
  • Canadian PM Mark Carney emphasised Canadian crude remains competitive, but markets remain cautious.
  • Canada’s Ivey PMI rebounded to 51.9, but oil dynamics overshadowed the improvement.
  • US data remains the dominant driver ahead of NFP.

Outlook: USD/CAD bias remains upward unless oil stabilises or US data disappoints.

USD/CHF

USD/CHF hovers near 0.7990, pausing after three days of gains.

Drivers:

  • CHF supported by safe‑haven demand amid geopolitical tensions involving Iran and Venezuela.
  • Swiss CPI was flat m/m in December, beating expectations of a decline; y/y inflation rose to 0.1%.
  • SNB minutes reaffirmed no urgency to adjust policy, with rates staying at 0%.
  • USD supported by pre‑NFP caution.

Outlook: USD/CHF may test 0.8000 again if NFP surprises to the upside.

Final Summary

The US Dollar strengthened ahead of today’s NFP release, with markets cautious and volatility subdued. Sterling weakened against the Dollar but held above 1.15 versus the Euro. The Euro remained under pressure despite strong retail sales, while the Australian Dollar fell on weaker China data and domestic uncertainty. CAD softened on oil‑related concerns, and CHF remained supported by geopolitical risk.