26/07/2024
Written by: Ian Morley
Summary:
US job openings decreased more than anticipated in April, signalling a continued gradual slowdown in the US job market. The weakness of the USD remained minimal ahead of Friday’s job numbers, suggesting that markets might be awaiting this data before further weakening the USD. Last night saw the first TV debate between PM Sunak and Starmer. A snap YouGov poll gave Sunak a slight advantage, with the PM leading on issues such as tax and immigration. However, Starmer was more favoured in terms of likeability, the NHS, and education. There was no impact on GBP.
Speeches:
Market Insight:
A significant amount of data is expected today, with the main market focus on the ADP payroll report, ISM services, and the Bank of Canada rate decision. The ADP payroll print may have limited impact if yesterday’s reaction to the JOLTs report is any indication. Therefore, attention will turn to the ISM services print at 3pm to provide further insight into the performance of the US economy in May.
The Bank of Canada is widely anticipated to cut rates from 5% to 4.75% (83% probability). However, it is unlikely to commit to further rate cuts, possibly opting to be data dependent. GBPCAD is currently trading at its highest levels since September 2021.