Market Insight 05-04-2024

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  • Market Insight 05-04-2024


In March, PMI figures from both the UK and EU moved closer together, with the EU exceeding expectations and indicating expansion, while the UK’s figures fell short. Consequently, GBPEUR saw a slight decrease for the day. The USD experienced a decline due to higher initial jobless claims and positioning ahead of the day’s job data.


  • USD: Federal Reserve speakers Collins, Barkin, Logan, Bowman

Market Insight:

GBPUSD and EURUSD have retraced 50% of their losses since February 21st, prompted by recent disappointing US data prompting profit-taking on USD gains. Attention is focused on the upcoming job data release at 1.30pm, which could influence the likelihood of a rate cut in June, currently estimated at 65%. A robust job report would strengthen the argument for a strong US economy and diminish the likelihood of a June rate cut, potentially leading to further declines in GBPUSD and EURUSD. Conversely, a weaker report could bolster gains in these currency pairs.


All eyes are on today’s job data to assess the resilience of the US economy. Market expectations anticipate 214,000 new jobs added and a 0.3% increase in hourly earnings.