26/07/2024
Written by: Ian Morley
Summary:
In March, PMI figures from both the UK and EU moved closer together, with the EU exceeding expectations and indicating expansion, while the UK’s figures fell short. Consequently, GBPEUR saw a slight decrease for the day. The USD experienced a decline due to higher initial jobless claims and positioning ahead of the day’s job data.
Speeches:
Market Insight:
GBPUSD and EURUSD have retraced 50% of their losses since February 21st, prompted by recent disappointing US data prompting profit-taking on USD gains. Attention is focused on the upcoming job data release at 1.30pm, which could influence the likelihood of a rate cut in June, currently estimated at 65%. A robust job report would strengthen the argument for a strong US economy and diminish the likelihood of a June rate cut, potentially leading to further declines in GBPUSD and EURUSD. Conversely, a weaker report could bolster gains in these currency pairs.
Analysis:
All eyes are on today’s job data to assess the resilience of the US economy. Market expectations anticipate 214,000 new jobs added and a 0.3% increase in hourly earnings.