04/11/2025
Written by: Ian Morley
Daily Currency Market Update – 4th November 2025
GBP/EUR
Summary: GBP/EUR weakened below 1.1370 as traders positioned ahead of Thursday’s BoE decision. Markets largely expect rates to remain at 4.0%, though softer inflation and wage data have lifted the probability of a cut to one-in-three. Political instability in France, following the rejection of a wealth tax, may limit Euro upside.
Outlook: GBP/EUR may remain pressured unless BoE signals a hawkish hold. French budget tensions and ECB commentary will guide Euro sentiment.
GBP/USD
Summary: GBP/USD traded below 1.3150, struggling to gain traction after Monday’s choppy session. The pair remains under pressure from UK fiscal concerns and cautious BoE expectations.
Outlook: Sterling may remain soft unless Bailey signals policy resilience. US Fed commentary and risk sentiment will shape direction.
EUR/USD
Summary: EUR/USD ticked up to 1.1525 after touching a three-month low earlier in the day. The pair remains vulnerable following a 1.3% decline over four sessions, as Fed hawkishness and cautious sentiment support the Dollar.
Outlook: Euro may remain subdued unless Lagarde signals policy flexibility. US data and Fed speakers will be key for momentum.
AUD/USD
Summary: AUD/USD declined toward 0.6500 after the RBA held rates at 3.6%. Governor Bullock noted that rate cuts weren’t discussed but left the door open for future easing. Rising bond yields and persistent inflation concerns weighed on the AUD.
Outlook: AUD may remain under pressure unless inflation moderates. China’s economic signals and Fed tone will guide direction.
USD/CAD
Summary: USD/CAD rose to 1.4070, supported by broad Dollar strength and softer oil prices. Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish tone reduced December cut expectations to 70%, while crude fell on supply glut concerns.
Outlook: CAD may stabilise if oil rebounds. BoC tone and US trade developments will influence direction.
USD/CHF
Summary: USD/CHF climbed to 0.8100, its highest since August, as Fed hawkishness and SNB dovishness diverged. Bets on SNB rate cuts into negative territory added pressure to the Franc.
Outlook: USD/CHF may remain firm unless SNB signals restraint. Fed commentary and global risk sentiment will shape CHF direction.
Final Summary
Sterling softened ahead of the BoE decision, while the Euro steadied near recent lows amid political uncertainty and cautious ECB tone. The US Dollar remained firm on fading December cut expectations. The Australian Dollar declined post-RBA, and the Canadian Dollar faced headwinds from weaker oil. The Swiss Franc weakened further as SNB easing bets persisted.