03/11/2025
Written by: Ian Morley
Daily Currency Market Update – 3rd November 2025
GBP/EUR
Summary: GBP/EUR remained below 1.1400 as UK fiscal concerns weighed on Sterling. Traders are cautious ahead of Thursday’s BoE decision, with most economists expecting rates to remain at 4.0%. However, speculation around tax hikes and spending cuts in the upcoming Autumn Budget has brought forward expectations for a rate cut to 3.75%. Meanwhile, political uncertainty in France may limit Euro upside.
Outlook: GBP/EUR may remain pressured unless BoE signals a hawkish hold. French budget negotiations and ECB commentary will guide Euro sentiment.
GBP/USD
Summary: GBP/USD traded near 1.3150 after losing over 1% last week. The pair briefly dipped below 1.3100 on Friday, driven by broad Dollar strength and UK budget concerns.
Outlook: Sterling may struggle to recover unless BoE surprises markets. US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Fed commentary will shape direction.
EUR/USD
Summary: EUR/USD hovered near 1.1530, close to a three-month low, after a 1% decline over the past three sessions. The Euro remains vulnerable amid Fed hawkishness and cautious sentiment.
Outlook: Eurozone Manufacturing PMI and US ISM data will be key. ECB tone and Fed speakers may reinforce divergence.
AUD/USD
Summary: AUD/USD held near 0.6550 ahead of Tuesday’s RBA decision. The pair gained modestly as markets expect the RBA to hold rates at 3.6%, supported by stronger-than-expected Q3 CPI and PPI data.
Outlook: AUD may remain supported if RBA maintains a steady tone. China’s economic signals and Fed outlook will influence direction.
USD/CAD
Summary: USD/CAD traded around 1.4010, steady after two days of gains. The pair is supported by reduced Fed rate cut expectations, though higher oil prices offer some support to the Loonie.
Outlook: CAD may gain if oil strength persists. Fed commentary and US data will guide USD/CAD direction.
USD/CHF
Summary: USD/CHF edged above 0.8050, extending gains as Swiss CPI disappointed. October inflation contracted 0.3% m/m and slowed to 0.1% y/y, increasing pressure on the SNB to consider further easing.
Outlook: CHF may weaken further if deflation persists. US ISM data and Fed tone will shape near-term moves.
Final Summary
Sterling remains under pressure amid fiscal uncertainty and BoE rate cut speculation. The Euro trades cautiously near multi-month lows, while the US Dollar consolidates recent gains ahead of key ISM data. The Australian Dollar holds firm on strong inflation data, and the Canadian Dollar is supported by oil strength. The Swiss Franc softens as deflationary pressures mount.