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Market Insight 03-10-2025

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  • Market Insight 03-10-2025

Daily Market Update: 3 October 2025

Key Currency Pair Movements

GBP/EUR

  • Summary: The GBP/EUR cross is trading cautiously around 1.1459 in the European morning.
  • Outlook: The pair is being held in a tight range as the Euro (EUR) receives some underlying support from the prospect of European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde’s speech later in the day.

GBP/USD

  • Summary: The pair keeps its footing near 1.34 in the European morning, after losing about 0.3% on Thursday.
  • Outlook: Pound Sterling (GBP) remains pressured by the US Dollar’s (USD) recovery seen on Thursday. However, GBP is likely to stay resilient, having been supported earlier in the week by the positive revision to the UK’s Q2 GDP figures.

EUR/USD

  • Summary: The pair registered moderate losses on Thursday but managed to stabilise above 1.1700 early Friday.
  • Outlook: The Euro (EUR) is being watched closely, as Eurostat will publish the Producer Price Index (PPI) data for August later in the session. Investors are also awaiting a speech by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde for any clues on the central bank’s rate outlook, which could impact the pair.

AUD/USD

  • Summary: The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6603, consolidating after its recent move.
  • Outlook: The Australian Dollar (AUD) is exhibiting volatility due to the broader market risk appetite returning, which initially benefited the ‘risk-on’ currency. However, the modest recovery in the US Dollar is keeping the pair in a tight consolidation phase.

USD/CAD

  • Summary: The pair is trading around 1.3968, showing a slight gain.
  • Outlook: The US Dollar (USD) is stabilising, which is providing underlying support to the pair. The USD/CAD is expected to trade range-bound as the market lacks a major Canadian catalyst and focuses on the ongoing US government shutdown.

USD/CHF

  • Summary: The pair stabilised on Friday, remaining range-bound with 0.7930 holding downside attempts.
  • Outlook: The pair remains on the defensive, despite the USD’s short-term recovery, due to the hawkish comments from Fed Dallas President Lorie Logan, who warned against cutting interest rates too fast. This is being counterbalanced by Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures released on Thursday, which confirmed deflationary trends and added pressure on the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to potentially cut interest rates further.

Final Summary

The US Dollar (USD) managed to stabilise and stay resilient against its rivals on Thursday, following bearish action seen in the first half of the week. The US federal government shutdown enters its third day, with the USD Index holding steady near 98.00. The Senate did not vote on funding legislation on Thursday due to the Yom Kippur holiday.

Market participants are now focusing on the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report for September, as the September Nonfarm Payrolls data will be delayed until government funding is restored.

The sentiment was boosted by hawkish remarks from Fed Dallas President Lorie Logan, who warned against easing monetary policy too quickly, dampening hopes for a rate cut in October. This contradicted earlier weak US employment data, including the ADP Employment Change showing a 32K decline in jobs.

Early Friday, US stock index futures are rising between 0.2% and 0.3%. The Eurozone economic calendar will feature the Producer Price Index (PPI) for August and a speech from ECB President Christine Lagarde.