09/09/2024
Written by: Ian Morley
Summary:
The US dollar continued its upward momentum towards the end of the month, with both GBP/USD and EUR/USD reaching their lowest levels in a week. US core PCE data largely met expectations, as did earlier EU CPI figures, reinforcing the likelihood of a 0.25% interest rate cut by the ECB in September.
Outlook:
Following last month’s disappointing data, which raised concerns about a potential US recession, the spotlight this week is on US employment figures. JOLTs job openings and ADP payroll data are due throughout the week, culminating in Friday’s nonfarm payroll report. Markets anticipate an addition of 160,000 jobs in August, with the unemployment rate expected to drop to 4.2%.
As noted last week, September has traditionally been a difficult month for equities and broader risk sentiment. This cautious stance has typically favoured the US dollar, making it the strongest performer of the year. The upcoming job data could play a crucial role in shaping market dynamics for the rest of the month.
Today marks Labour Day in the US, and with no major volatility triggers expected, the week is likely to begin on a quiet note.