Market Insight 02-07-2024

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  • Market Insight 02-07-2024


The EUR dominated headlines yesterday morning, beginning the day stronger after the first round of France’s elections showed Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party did not secure as large a majority as anticipated. However, by the afternoon, attention shifted to another political figure, as the US Supreme Court ruled that Donald Trump has some immunity in efforts to overturn the 2020 election result. This decision led to a broad gain for the USD, reversing the morning’s losses. Markets largely disregarded the weaker-than-expected manufacturing PMI figures.


  • EUR: ECB Guindos, Elderson, Schnabel, Lagarde
  • USD: Fed Powell

Market Insight:

Focus is on inflation numbers from the Eurozone, with expectations that CPI will decline in May. Markets are currently considering the potential for two additional rate cuts this year, provided there are no major surprises regarding inflation. For the EUR, uncertainty surrounding the second round of the election on Sunday may limit further gains. USD focus will be on the JOLTs job openings data at 3 pm, and Fed Chair Powell’s participation in a panel in Sintra, Portugal. Currently, USD gains appear to be tied to the increased likelihood of Trump surpassing Biden as the next President.