20/01/2025
Written by: Ian Morley
Summary:
Friday’s session was relatively uneventful, with macroeconomic data releases largely aligning with forecasts. The US dollar eased from recent highs as the latest inflation readings confirmed a downward trend. Sterling remained mostly unchanged despite stronger-than-expected UK Q1 GDP data, as market focus is on the upcoming Thursday election. This morning, the euro has risen, with early indications from the first round of French election voting suggesting Le Pen’s far-right party could secure 34% of the vote, although it may not gain enough seats for an outright majority.
Speeches:
Market Insight:
Macroeconomic factors have temporarily taken a back seat as elections in France, the UK, and the US dominate market attention. However, this trend is expected to pause with the upcoming release of EU inflation data, minutes from the recent US FOMC meeting, and the US monthly employment report. Despite the euro’s early bounce this morning on hopes that the far-right will not secure an outright majority, we do not anticipate Thursday’s UK election to significantly move markets, assuming a landslide Labour majority, as both major parties are perceived to have similar fiscal policies.