25/04/2025
Written by: Ian Morley
Daily Currency Update – 1st April 2025
GBPEUR
Summary: The pound remained steady against the euro today as UK manufacturing PMI data showed a slight improvement, offering some support to sterling. Meanwhile, the euro saw limited movement as markets awaited key Eurozone inflation data due later this week.
Outlook: The focus now shifts to upcoming economic releases from both the UK and the Eurozone. If UK data continues to surprise positively, sterling could gain further ground. However, any signs of sticky Eurozone inflation may bolster the euro.
EURUSD
Summary: The euro weakened against the US dollar as US ISM manufacturing data came in stronger than expected, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a cautious stance on rate cuts.
Outlook: The next key event will be US jobs data later this week. If employment figures remain strong, the dollar could see further upside. Meanwhile, Eurozone inflation figures will be closely watched for any impact on ECB policy expectations.
GBPUSD
Summary: The pound saw some minor losses against the dollar, with strong US economic data underpinning the greenback. UK economic indicators were largely neutral, offering little support to sterling.
Outlook: Market participants will be watching US employment and UK services PMI data for further direction. A stronger-than-expected UK services sector reading could lend some support to GBP, but the dollar remains favoured on the back of resilient US data.
USDAUD
Summary: The US dollar gained against the Australian dollar as risk appetite softened and commodity prices faced downward pressure. Strong US economic data further supported the greenback.
Outlook: The Australian dollar’s performance will depend on upcoming domestic trade data and broader market sentiment. If risk aversion persists, the USD may continue to outperform the AUD.
USDCAD
Summary: The Canadian dollar weakened against the US dollar as oil prices pulled back, reducing demand for the commodity-linked CAD. Strong US data also reinforced the dollar’s strength.
Outlook: Canada’s employment report later this week will be a key driver. If job growth disappoints, the loonie could see further downside, especially if US data remains strong.
USDCHF
Summary: The Swiss franc lost ground against the dollar as investors favoured the greenback amid strong US economic indicators. The franc’s safe-haven appeal remained intact but was overshadowed by USD strength.
Outlook: The pair’s movement will likely be driven by US jobs data and any geopolitical developments that could influence safe-haven demand.
Final Summary: Currency movements were largely dictated by strong US economic data, reinforcing the dollar’s position. The pound held steady against the euro but struggled against the dollar, while the Canadian and Australian dollars faced pressure from weaker commodities. Looking ahead, key economic releases later this week will set the tone for further market direction.